Weekly Sentiment Poll – Bullish technicals has been trending up in recent weeks,

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Weekly Sentiment Poll – Bullish technicals has been trending up in recent weeks,
Here’s a quick note looking at some charts created using data from the latest weekly equity sentiment poll I’ve been running.  As a reminder, the Weekly Equity Sentiment Poll uses Twitter polling and distinguishes between whether respondents are bullish or bearish primarily on the back of fundamental vs technical analysis reasons.
Here’s how each of the response have been tracking over time. Bullish technicals has been trending up in recent weeks, while bearish fundamentals and technicals have both fallen off in the past couple of weeks.

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As for the overall bulls vs bear spread, the below graph shows how its tracking vs the S&P500.  Previously there had been some bearish divergence as the sentiment indicator fell while price was heading higher, but now there is bullish confirmation.

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Looking at the bullish vs bearish spread for each of the categories, you can see the bull/bear spread has begun to rebound for both fundamentals and technicals.

542496 a50269c5d44e406eb8c7b8e59f7c2ff8~mv2

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Finally, here’s that sentiment vs the VIX chart – there is a clear closing of the gap, a partial resolving of the divergence, but for now it’s from the sentiment side.  I mentioned this chart in the latestWeekly S&P500 #ChartStormwhich highlighted the low volatility environment and the prospect for higher volatility ahead, it also appeared in theWeekly Macro Themes, alongside some of our proprietary VIX models and indicators.

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Summary
The latest results show investors becoming more bullish on balance, with the technical and fundamental bull-bear spreads rising. At present there is no real extreme in the survey and the bearish divergences seem to be resolving in a benign way, so on balance the results appear to be as expected for the type of market environment we’re seeing.  That said, as noted in the latest ChartStorm, there’s still some risk warning signs out there.
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Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.
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