If you do remember the first time I wrote about yield being poison, you are unusual, because it was the first real post at Aleph Blog. A very small post — kinda cute, I think when I look at it from almost ten years ago… and prescient for its time, because a lot of risky bonds were about to lose value (in 19 months), aside from the highest quality bonds.
I decided to write this article this night because I decided to run my bond momentum model — low and behold, it yelled at me that everyone is grabbing for yield through credit risk, predominantly corporate and emerging markets, with a special love for bank debt closed end funds.
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I get the idea — short rates are going to rise because the Fed is tightening and inflation is rising globally, and there is no credit risk anymore because economic growth is accelerating globally — it’s not just a US/Trump thing. I just have a harder time playing the game because we are in the wrong phase of the credit cycle — profit growth is nonexistent, and debts are growing.
I have a few other concerns as well. Even if encouraging exports and discouraging imports aids the US economy for a while (though I doubt it — more jobs rely on exports than are lost by imports, what if there is retaliation?) there is a corresponding opposite impact on the capital account — less reinvestment in the US. We could see higher yields…
Charles Gave:THE END OF THE DOLLAR STANDARD https://t.co/WZxUWX15SN I have wondered the same: Won’t Trump’s policies undo USD standard? $$
— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) February 4, 2017
That said, I would be more bearish on the US Dollar if it had some real competition. All of the major currencies have issues. Gold, anyone? Low short rates and rising inflation are the ideal for gold. Watch the real cost of carry go more negative, and you get paid (sort of) for holding gold.
If growth and inflation persist globally (consider some of the work @soberlook has been doing at The WSJ Daily Shot — a new favorite of mine, even his posts are too big) then almost no bonds except the shortest bonds will be any good in the intermediate-term — back to the ’70s phrase “certificates of confiscation.” One other effect that could go this way — if the portion of Dodd-Frank affecting bank leverage is repealed, the banks will have a much greater ability to lend overnight, which would be inflationary. Of course, they could just pay special dividends, but most corporations lean toward growing the business, unless they are disciplined capital allocators.
As Trump Team Enters Office, Repealing Dodd-Frank Could Have Inflationary Risks https://t.co/RCMcV5ksdv I talk about excess bank capital $$
— David Merkel (@AlephBlog) January 13, 2017
But it is not assured that the current growth and inflation will persist. M2 Monetary velocity is still low, and the long end of the yield curve does not have yield enough priced in for additional growth and inflation. Either long bonds are a raving sell, or the long end is telling us we are facing a colossal fake-out in the midst of too much leverage globally.
I’m going to stay high quality and short for now, but I will be watching for the current trends to break. I may leg into some long Treasuries, and maybe some foreign bonds. Gold looks interesting, but I don’t think I am going there. I’m not making any big moves in the short run — safe and short feels pretty good for the bond portfolios that I manage. I think it’s a time to preserve principal — there is more credit risk than the market is pricing in. It might take a year or two to get there, or it might be next month… I would simply say stay flexible and look for a time where you have better opportunities. There is no fat pitch at present for long only investors like me.
To those playing with fire buying dividend paying common stocks, preferred stocks, MLPs, etc. for yield — if we hit a period where credit risk becomes obvious — all of your “yield plays” will behave like stocks in a poisoned sector. There could be significant dividend cuts. Dividends are not guaranteed like bonds — bonds must pay or it is bankruptcy. Managements avoid defaulting on their bonds and loans, but will not hesitate to cut or not pay dividends in a crisis — it is self-preservation, at least in the short-run. Even if they get replaced by angry shareholders, the management typically gets some sort of parachute if the company survives, and far less in bankruptcy.
One final note on this point — stocks that have a lot of yield buyers behave more like bonds. If bond yields rise above current stock earnings yields, the stock prices will fall to reprice the yield of the stock, even if there is no bankruptcy risk.
And, if you say you can hold on and enjoy the rising dividends of your high quality companies? Accidents happen, the same way they did to some people who bought houses in the middle of the last decade. Many could not ride out the crisis because of some life event. Make sure you have a margin of safety. In a really large crisis, the return on risk assets may look decent from ten years before to ten years after, but a lot of people get surprised by their need to draw on those assets at the wrong moment — bad events come in bunches, when the credit cycle goes bust. Be careful, and don’t reach for yield.