Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock rose by more than 1% on Tuesday, the first trading day of the new year. The automaker is set to let analysts in for a tour of its Gigafactory this week, which also happens to be the week of the annual Consumers Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The Gigafactory is being built in Nevada, the same state where CES will be held, so this hardly seems like a coincidence.
Goldman expects Tesla to miss on deliveries… again
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is expected to announce its preliminary number for shipments in the fourth quarter, and Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino said in a research note dated Dec. 30 that eh expects another miss. The automaker certainly hasn’t been doing well in terms of making its shipment estimates, so it desperately needs to at least meet its estimate, if not beat it. The company’s implied guidance was 25,000 vehicles, based on the full-year outlook and quarterly shipment numbers last year. Tesla had guided for 50,000 deliveries in 2016, and to meet that, it had to deliver 25,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter.
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Tamberrino said that his monthly delivery tracker suggests that the EV maker delivered only 8,000 vehicles through the end of November. He added that even when assuming that assuming that Tesla’s deliveries will be skewed to the end of the quarter, as they have been historically, he still comes up with a delivery miss.
Which is more important for Tesla?
The Goldman analyst expects the delivery number to be a negative catalyst for Tesla stock of course, but he believes tomorrow’s Gigafactory tour will be a positive catalyst. Given that the two events are expected to come around the same time, possibly even on the same day, the big question is which event will outweigh the other in the eyes of investors. Will they be more forgiving on another delivery miss because of how impressed they are with the Gigafactory, or will they send Tesla stock into freefall because of the miss and ignore the Gigafactory?
At Wednesday’s Gigafactory tour, Tamberrino does expect to see more progress on the Gigafactory and just toward the automaker’s goals in general. He also believes that Tesla will reiterate its outlook for tripling the output it initially gave for the facility, which was 50 gigawatts per year.
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has been one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street for years, and this trend probably won’t go away any time soon. Goldman is one of the most bearish firms when it comes to Tesla stock right now after being called out for upgrading it just before the announcement of another round of financing. Goldman was one of the underwriters for that offering and downgraded the EV maker’s shares just a short time later.
Late last week, analyst Ben Kallo of Baird said Tesla stock is his top pick for 2017, as he expects the automaker’s energy business and the Model 3 to outperform expectations. In a research note last week, he said he doesn’t believe that the Tesla Energy business or the Model 3 are factored into the automaker’s stock price.
Tesla’s batteries to boost its sales
Kallo believes that battery sales are on the rise and that the ramp in battery production that will accompany the Gigafactory’s opening and the Model 3 launch will boost sales of batteries. As a result, he recommends snapping up more shares of Tesla stock before the company releases more information on its battery costs and “density metrics.” Like Goldman, he expects tomorrow’s Gigafactory tour to be a positive catalyst for Tesla stock, as it appears to be already, unless investors are buying Tesla stock purely because of Kallo’s recommendation. Also like Goldman, Baird is also planning on attending the Gigafactory tour.
The analyst feels that the Powerwall 2 will help the company increase its share of the home and small business energy storage market. because it “offers a competitive pricing advantage on a per kilowatt basis.” He noted that the Powerwall 2 packs double the energy density of its predecessor, and although Tesla hasn’t shared a lot of numbers on the Powerwall 2, some are estimating that the energy storage system offers a “30% price advantage in terms of cost per total warrantied kilowatt over its closes competitor.”
Shares of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock rose by as much as 1.6% to $219.76 during regular trading hours on Tuesday.