International Large Cap Recovery Under Way

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International Large Cap Recovery Under Way

“Davidson” submits:

Market psychology does not always follow economics. This has been the case with Intl Equities. In the face of a rising US$, this category has underperformed the economic growth present in Intl Equities. That the Eurozone Real GDP has been growing at historical levels is shown in Real Gross Domestic Product (Euro/ECU series) for Euro area (19 countries). For US investors the impact of the strong US$ since 2014 has translated this growth into an under-performing asset class as represented by the price history of the Oakmark International Fund. Global capital flows impact currency relationships and are dependent on investor return expectations. Cause and effect for global capital flows are often connected to geopolitics and impossible to predict. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the rise of terrorism and autocratic governments in recent years has resulted in capital pooling in the US and other Western nations. The result has been excessive strength in the US$, rising real estate prices and historically low Sovereign debt rates. Ultra-low 10yr Treasury rates appear to be normalizing as capital begins its shift back to Intl Equities.

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