Half the World’s Stock markets are now in a Bull Market

Defining whether a benchmark or stock price is in a bull market or a bear market is not as straight forward as it might sound, there are a lot of nuances and “if’s” and “but’s”.  That said, one rule of thumb is that a bull market is when the price is up more than 20% and a bear market is when the price is down more than 20%.  So armed with the knowledge of what constitutes a bull market, here’s a question: how many countries in the world are currently in a bull market?

The chart shows the proportion of countries have seen their main benchmark index rise more than 20% off the low (in this study there are 70 countries, and I used a 52 week window for simplicity).  And as you can see in the graph, and as you might guess from the title, justover half of those 70 countries are now in a bull marketas defined here.
Looking at the chart, you may notice a few things.
First is the indicator really fires up at the start of a bull market e.g. 2003, 2009, and again around the start of the QE rally.  Second, it goes low, like almost to zero, at a major market bottom (e.g. at the end of 2015). Third and final – the MSCI ACWI (All Countries World Index) in local currency terms just made a new all time high last week.  What does that add up to? In my opinion a new bull market forglobal equities.
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Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.