Consuelo Mack WealthTrack “New Financial World: Global” — premiering nationwide beginning this Friday, January 13 at 7:30 p.m. ET on public television (check local listings**) and on wealthtrack.com — features part two of Anchor and Executive Producer Consuelo Mack’s annual exclusive interview with Wall Street’s No. 1-ranked economist for a record 36 years Ed Hyman, chairman and founder of Evercore ISI, and top mutual fund manager Matthew McLennan, head of Global Value Team and portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management, who discuss the dramatic financial changes occurring around the world and what they mean for business and investors.
Mack offers this interview preview: “Eight years after the financial crisis, Ed Hyman thinks global growth is accelerating, after years of stagnation and even contraction in some cases. Barring some unexpected shock, he says the likelihood of recession in the U.S., Europe, Japan or China is several years out. Matthew McLennan thinks economies are still fragile and the markets are expensive.”
Watch a preview of Ed Hyman discussing China, Japan and Europe:
Wherever Ed Hyman and his Evercore ISI team look in the U.S. and the major economies of Europe and Asia they are seeing improvement: employment is picking up, interest rates are edging higher and prices of goods, services and commodities like oil are rising after years of falling or standing still. The U.S. economy has improved ahead of the pack, but Europe, China and even Japan are now seeing improvement.
Ed Hyman on major risks:
*A sudden burst of inflation which could cause central banks to raise interest rates rapidly and cut off growth.
*The high level of government debt makes economies more vulnerable to slowdowns.
Matthew McLennan points out:
*Total global debt — that’s government, corporate and personal — is higher than it was in 2007, just before the financial crisis.
*As interest rates rise, it is going to be more difficult to finance the debt.
*High levels of debt also make it more difficult for governments and central banks to respond to any setbacks or disruptions.
*Stock and bond markets are expensive around the world.
*As a value investor, it’s hard to find good investment opportunities.
Hyman says Japan is his favorite international market because the economy is starting to improve and companies are becoming more shareholder-friendly.
McLennan invests in individual companies not markets, but also likes Japan because of corporate reforms, which are benefiting shareholders, such as large dividends payouts and independent directors. First Eagle owns some Japanese companies that McLennan says are among the best businesses in the world. His “One Investment” recommendation is Fanuc Corporation (FANUY), a world leader in factory automation equipment.