We have a light calendar for economic data and a short week of trading. The biggest news will come from corporate earnings reports. Some financial stocks reported on Friday, but this is the first big week for Q416. Earnings season is always important, but sometimes it is special. This week the pundits will be asking:
Will improving corporate earnings confirm perceptions of a stronger economy?
Last week the economic news was strong, but with little reaction from stocks.
In my last WTWA I predicted a punditry focused on the incoming Trump Administration. The confirmation hearings provided a lot of fresh news, and there was not much going on in daily trading. My guess that people would be “digging down” for clues about policy changes was a pretty good one.
The Story in One Chart
I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short. As you can readily see, both the range and the weekly change were very small. You can also see the 1% intra-day move during the Trump press conference.
Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read his entire post where he adds analysis grounded in data and several more charts providing long-term perspective.
Each week I break down events into good and bad. Often there is an “ugly” and on rare occasion something very positive. My working definition of “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!
This week’s news was quite good—almost all positive. I make objective calls, which means not stretching to achieve a false balance. If I missed something for the “bad” list, please feel free to suggest it in the comments. This is a good week to illustrate the problem with the so-called “economic surprise” indexes. So much depends on how you determine the expectations. If conditions are good, they are good, even though some expect continued improvement each week.
- Mortgage applications up 5.8%, despite concerns that higher rates would hurt the market. This is a very nice surprise.
- Jobless claims at 247K continues at an extremely low level.
- Michigan sentiment at 98.1 on the preliminary survey remains very strong (although a slight miss on expectations).
- Sea container counts end the year on a strong note. Steven Hansen (GEI) does his expected deep dive into the data, providing plenty of long-term analysis. Here is a key table:
- NFIB small business outlook surges. Scott Grannis has the story, including references to consumer confidence as well.
- Retail sales? More spin – good or bad?
U.S. retail sales disappoint at end of the year (MarketWatch) at 9:10 ET.
Holiday retail sales rise 4% to beat NRF expectations (MarketWatch) at 10:29 ET.
- Gasoline prices are up about 20% year-over-year. New Deal Democrat has the story.
- Business inventories? Some regard this as bad because of the m/o/m increase of 0.7%. Last week I called this a very spinnable number. Inventories are either wanted or unwanted. Going into the number we knew that the level was depleted. This is really a neutral report.
Volkswagen Diesel Scandal. We now know that this was the responsibility of important executives – not just low-level employees or a faceless corporation. Fiat Chrysler is also charged, but claims important differences.
The Silver Bullet
I occasionally give the Silver Bullet award to someone who takes up an unpopular or thankless cause, doing the real work to demonstrate the facts. There is week’s award goes to David Moenning (a nomination from a reader, Lasrman) for his helpful discussion of “Alts.” He writes as follows:
The pitch is strong. “Alts,” as they are called, are touted as a source of diversification, a way to create non-correlated portfolios, and a means toward potential risk reduction during severe market declines. I’ve heard some folks even suggest that alts are a way to produce a solid “riskless” returns!
…who doesn’t want to own an investing strategy that is designed to produce a nice, steady 6-8% return without the vagaries associated with the traditional asset classes?
And the problem….
Investopedia goes on to note that most of these alt strategies are designed for sophisticated investors. “Most alternative investment assets are held by institutional investors or accredited, high-net-worth individuals because of the complex natures and limited regulations of the investments,” the website says.
[Jeff] The most attractive track record I ever saw was from Bernie Madoff – consistent strong returns and minimal drawdowns. It was too good to be true. David’s experience is quite like mine. I get pitches for these products on a regular basis. Some of them are theoretically sound and might work. The average investor does not have the skill to evaluate them.
We also published our annual review of winners. If you take a look at the excellent work reviewed (here and here) you will see the advantage of following these contrarian sources. You will be surprised at how much it can help your investing!
The Week Ahead
We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. That is the purpose of considering possible themes for the week ahead. You can make your own predictions in the comments.
It is back to normal for the volume of economic data, but fewer of the most important reports.
The “A” List
- Housing starts and building permits (Th). The most important leading data in a key sector.
- Industrial production (W). The expected rebound would improve overall confidence in the economy.
- Initial claims (Th). The best concurrent indicator for employment trends.
The “B” List
- Beige Book (W). The Fed’s district-by-district look will be scoured for signs that rate hikes might come more quickly than expected.
- Philly Fed (Th). Earliest read on the new month has gained more respect in the past year.
- CPI (Th). Interest in the inflation reports is building, but the worrisome stages are not imminent.
Crude inventories (Th). Recently showing even more impact on oil prices. Rightly or wrongly, that spills over to stocks.
Fed speakers are still on the trail, with appearances every day. Chair Yellen will make two appearances.
Earnings reports will be the most important news.
Next Week’s Theme
It is a short week, with a light calendar of data. The Trump story continues as confirmation hearings shed a little more light on possible policies. There will be plenty of FedSpeak.
Despite these factors, the start of earnings season should give the punditry a break from All Trump, all the time. Because of recent economic strength, people will be skeptically searching the earnings news for signs of weakness or a negative outlook. The key question will be:
Do Earnings Reports Confirm a Stronger Economy?
The basic positions are simple.
- Reports normally beat estimates, and there is plenty of potential this season (FactSet)
- Some recent laggards are looking strong—energy, tech, financials (Brian Gilmartin).