Brexiteering the cable

With the latest rumblings of a “hard Brexit” hitting the wires the cable or GBPUSD has hit fresh lows.  So I thought it would be worth reviewing an interesting chart of the sterling or pound as it’s also known.  The chart below shows the GBPUSD along with a simple measure of valuation that assumes long term mean reversion and long term reversion to/through PPP (purchasing power parity) implied levels.  Also shown is perhaps more of a sentiment measure; speculative futures positioning.  Together the indicators tell a very interesting tail of the Brexiteered currency.

The valuation indicator shows the pound as increasingly cheap against theUS dollar, while at the same time speculative futures positioning remains materially net short.  In other word’s it is undervalued and unloved – something that should appeal to your inner contrarian (at least it make my inner contrarian take notice).  Indeed, in the past when there has been a pairing of extremes in valuation and positioning it has marked turning points for the GBPUSD exchange rate.

The trouble is of course, that there is no lower bound for exchange rates and it could keep going.  The graph above shows the cable trading comfortably below the 50 and 200 day moving averages; both of which are sloping down – strong down-trend signal.  Also worth noting is that the latest news or noise has send the sterling below support of 1.21 and in recent history breaks of support e.g. 1.29 and 1.41 have been followed by significant moves.  So while the first chart says we could be nearing a turning point, the technicals say not so fast…
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Topdown Charts: "chart driven macro insights" Based in Queenstown, New Zealand, Topdown Charts brings you independent research and analysis on global macro themes and trends. Topdown Charts covers multiple economies, markets, and asset classes with a distinct chart-driven focus. We are not bound by technical or fundamental dogma, and instead look to leverage any relevant factor to capture the theme. As such, here you will find some posts that are purely technical strategy, some that just cover economics and data, and some posts that use multiple inputs to tell the story and identify the opportunities. Callum Thomas Head of Research Callum is the founder of Topdown Charts. He previously worked in investment strategy and asset allocation at AMP Capital in the Multi-Asset division. Callum has a passion for global macro investing and has developed strong research and analytical expertise across economies and asset classes. Callum's approach is to utilise a blend of factors to inform the macro view.