The Household Survey employment report was 160,000 in November than in October. Light Vehicle Sales continued at a healthy 17.87mil SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).The trends in the data continue to be very healthy for economic expansion.
Livermore Strategic Opportunities February 2021 Update
Livermore Strategic Opportunities, LP performance update for the month of February 2021. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Many of you are witnessing first hand that our country, economy, (and now stock market) are all very fractured and becoming extremely challenged. Therefore, our hedge fund's theme remains focused on specific sectors and companies. Read More
In listening to the CNBC discussion about our economy, I continue to be baffled by the extent of the misperception of our economy that it makes my head spin. Much of it is politically skewed to support how various advisors get paid by their supporters. There is a marketing element to their perception, but this does not take away that they are unaware of the current economic strength present in global markets.
Job growth perceptions as weak have been incredibly incorrect as has been the growth in Wages and Real Personal Income. The overall economic growth likewise has been misperceived. Real Private GDP has been on track with the historical trend. Everyone has the same access to the Moving Avg of Initial Jobless Claims. Yet, they completely miss the incredible economic strength which has driven Jobless Claims as a percentage of Household Survey employment to levels we have never witnessed in previous recoveries. Rather they are focused on whether this week is higher or lower than last week.
So many have missed completely that US$ strength as correlated to US withdrawing global support for Democracy and the rapid rise of autocratic governments and terrorism. Liberals and Conservatives fight over minuscule details and completely miss the larger picture that economic growth has driven improvements in the global standard of living. In my opinion, the current US$ strength is in the process of peaking with the proposed new administration’s appointments of individuals known for their support of individual property rights and Democratic institutions. The re-emergence of US support for fairness and Democracy globally will encourage flow of capital (which has pooled in Western countries the past 8yrs) back to developing countries in coming years. Global economic growth is on the verge of acceleration in my opinion.
We stand currently at the highest economic level ever achieved by mankind AND we are about to accelerate this in the next few years. I continue to recommend investors hold LgCap Domestic and International allocations as well as an allocation to Natural Resources. We have already witnessed s substantial rise in commodity prices as investors anticipate increasing demand. I expect we will benefit from additional increases.
In short I am very bullish about the future prospects for equity prices.