This crazy election is finally coming to a close, and once all the ballots are cast and counted, the question everyone will be asking is: What does President Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump mean for our wallets? To answer that question, WalletHub prepared a pair of reports examining the potential outcomes: What If Trump Wins? and What If Hillary Wins?

FBI Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
Image source: Wikimedia Commons
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

What If Trump Wins?

Article by John S Kiernan, WalletHub

Have you thought about how the world could change if the likely frigid morning of January 20 echoes with these words: “I Donald J. Trump do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States…”?

To some, the prospect is invigorating. To others, it’s terrifying. To WalletHub, however, the question is at least somewhat quantifiable. We crunched the numbers on what’s likely in store for everything from GDP growth and the S&P 500 to tax rates and healthcare coverage should Mr. Trump pull out a Brexit-esque victory on Election Day. Below, you can check out what we found, along with commentary from experts in each category. You can also learn what the other side of the coin has in store for us from our corresponding report on a Hillary Clinton win.

Area Of Interest Projected Impact
Personal Taxes 33% top Individual Tax Rates for income over $112,500
Corporate Taxes Discouraging inversions through taxation in order to grow the economy
Stock Market Political predecessors registered a 3.28% increase of the market (adjusted for inflation) (Divided Congress)
Unemployment Points to energy as a source for new jobs in the future
Education Pledged to invest $20 billion of federal dollars into a voucher program for students to attend school of their choice and repeal common core
Social Security Has pledged to save Social Security without cuts
Health Care Repeal and replace the ACA
Minimum Wage Increase the minimum wage to $10/h but let states set the minimum wage as appropriate for them

 

Personal Taxes

Annual Income Trump’s Proposed Tax Rate Current Rate
$415,050+ 33% 39.6%
$413,350 to $415,049.99 33% 35%
$190,150 to $413,349.99 33% 33%
$112,500 to $190,149.99 33% 28%
$91,150 to $112,499.99 25% 28%
$37,650 to $91,149.99 25% 25%
$37,500 to $37,649.99 25% 15%
$9,275 to $37,449.99 12% 15%
$0 to $9,274.99 12% 10%

 

  • Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,276B
  • Projected Impact on Tax Revenue for 2017 (Trump): -$341B

Other Notable Tax Policy Changes

Issue Trump’s Stance Trump’s Comments
Estate Tax Repeal it
Tax capital gains held until death and valued over $10 million, except for small businesses and family farms.
Prohibit contributions of appreciated assets into a private charity established by the decedent or decedent’s relatives.
“The estate tax has been a disaster; it’s double taxation.”
Caregiver Benefits Full deductibility of average-cost child care expenses.
Above-the-line deduction for children under age 13 that will be capped at state average for age of child, and for eldercare for a dependent.
Exclusion will not be available to taxpayers with total income over $500,000 (married-joint or $250,000 (single).
“My plan will also help reduce the cost of child care by allowing parents to fully deduct the average cost of child care spending from their taxes.”
Itemized Deductions Increase the standard deduction to $30,000 for joint filers and $15,000 for single filers
Cap itemized deductions at $200,000 for married-joint filers or $100,000 for single filers
No change for mortgage interest or charitable contributions
Retirement Accounts No stated position No stated position
Alternative Minimum Tax Eliminate it “[We should] get rid of the death tax, as well as the horrific alternative minimum tax.”

 

Corporate Taxes

Issue Trump’s Stance
Top Corporate Tax Rate 15%
Top Pass-Through Rate 15% (new business tax within the personal tax code)
Taxation of future foreign earnings Immediate worldwide taxation; repeal of deferral
Mandatory Tax, Untaxed Accumulated Foreign Earnings 10%
Inversions Discourage inversions to grow the economy
Offshoring 35% tariff on goods imported into the United States by U.S. companies that have moved overseas
Cost Recovery 100% expensing
Business Interest Expense “Reasonable cap” on deductibility
R&D Expenses No stated position
Derivatives No stated position
Other Business Provisions Reducing or eliminating corporate loopholes that cater to special interests, as well as deductions made unnecessary or redundant by the new lower tax on corporations

 

Stock Market

Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors

  • Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 3.28% annual rate with a Republican president and a divided Congress.
  • The S&P 500 has grown at a 16.36% annual rate with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.

Unemployment

Initiative More Info
Relax Federal Regulations Pro-growth tax plan
Modern regulatory framework
America-first trade policy
Energy independence plan
Penny plan
Make the U.S. the World’s Leading Energy Producer Use energy to create jobs in the future.
Make American energy dominance a strategic economic and foreign policy goal of the United States.
Unleash America’s $50 trillion in untapped oil, natural gas and “clean coal” reserves.

 

Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors

  • Historically, the unemployment has increased by an average of 0.21 percentage points with a Republican president and divided Congress.
  • The unemployment rate has increased by an average of 0.22 percentage point with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.

Education

Issue Trump’s Position Trump’s Comments
School Voucher Program Pledged to invest $20 billion in a voucher program to support school choice “As president, I will establish the national goal of providing school choice to every American child living in poverty. If we can put a man on the moon, dig out the Panama Canal and win two world wars, then I have no doubt that we as a nation can provide school choice to every disadvantaged child in America.”
Charter Schools Supports them “Competition is why I’m very much in favor of school choice. Let schools compete for kids. I guarantee that if you forced schools to get better or close because parents didn’t want to enroll their kids there, they would get better.”
Teachers’ Unions Criticizes them “Our public schools have grown up in a competition-free zone, surrounded by a very high union wall. Why aren’t we shocked at the results?”
Common Core Promises to get rid of it “I have been consistent in my opposition to Common Core. Get rid of Common Core.”
Debt-Free College Doesn’t support it.
(Wants to pressure institutions with large endowments to spend more on students, thus reducing tuition costs.)
“Instead these universities use the money to pay their administrators, to put donors’ names on their buildings, or just store the money, keep it and invest it. But they should be using the money on students, for tuition, for student life and for student housing. That’s what it’s supposed to be for.”

 

Social Security

Issue Trump’s Stance Trump’s Comments
Retirement Age Opposed to raising it “It’s my intention to leave Social Security the way it is. Not increase the age and to leave it as is.”
Benefit Cuts Pledges to save Social Security without cuts. “People signed up for Social Security; it’s kind of like a pledge. The people who have their Social Security, with me, are going to keep their Social Security.”
Benefit Increases No position No position
Cost-Of-Living Adjustments No changes
Payroll Tax Against raising it “The average worker today pays 31.5% of their wages to income and payroll taxes.”
Privatization No position “Privatization would be good for all of us. Directing Social Security funds into personal accounts invested in real assets would swell national savings, pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into jobs and the economy”.

 

Health Care

Issue Trump’s Stance
Health Insurance Require price transparency from health care providers
Allow for the sale of health insurance across state lines
Allow for tax-deductible health insurance premiums
Expand use of health savings accounts
Medicare Voiced support for allowing Medicare to negotiate drug and biologic prices
Medicaid Block grants

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