Who has the support from Russia? Is it Republican Donald Trump or his rival Democrat Hillary Clinton?
With less than 24 hours left before polling stations in the United Stations open, it remains a huge geopolitical question.
Russia is a crucial detail in the sophisticated and complex machine that is called 2016 U.S. Presidential election. And Russia is closely watching.
Recent polls in Russia showed that a whopping 60% of Russians think U.S. Presidential election is a big deal. By contrast, even less Russians, 55%, thought so highly of their own Parliament elections.
So Russia and its leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin, must’ve already made up their mind about their favorite candidate. Yes, they did.
In fact, if America’s Presidential election took place all over the world, Trump would win ONLY in Russia. The rest of the world would vote for Clinton.
According to WIN/Gallup International’s recent polling, a whopping 33% of Russians think Trump would save America’s relations with Russia. And only 4% of Russians would be happy about Clinton’s triumph.
Some say Clinton’s presidency is the worst option for Russia. While others argue that Trump would create chaos not only in Russia, but all around the world.
So who has a point?
Trump vs Clinton: Huge gap in Russia rhetoric
It’s clear that Putin and his entire leadership are more positive about Trump’s triumph this Tuesday. And Russian citizens are no less excited about Trump than Russia’s leadership.
Why?
Look at Trump’s rhetoric about Russia during his presidential campaign. Never has Trump ever said anything bad about Russia or its leader.
In fact, all we have heard from Trump have been praises to Russia and promises of great partnership between the two nations.
Trump said he is inspired by Putin’s leadership values. He almost promised he would become best pals with Putin. Trump said there is nothing wrong about Russia’s military involvement in Syria… And the list goes on and on.
Now, look at Clinton’s rhetoric. She has previously called for a military attack against Russia. Clinton accused Russia of hacking America’s presidential election server.
And Clinton even thinks that Trump is Russia’s ‘puppet’. But that’s far from the truth. There is evidence that proves Trump is not Russia’s agent. However, he still serves Russia’s interests.
Trump or Clinton is more favorable for Russia?
The future of Russia-American relations directly depend on this year’s presidential election in the U.S.
Russia’s partnership with China, oil prices, conflicts in Ukraine and Syria as well as sanctions depend on it. So pretty much the roots of the tensions between Moscow and Washington are at stake.
If Clinton is elected president, all matters regarding China will remain unchanged. Russia will still be strengthening its partnership with China, while the U.S. will be trying to end Moscow-Beijing friendship at all cost.
If Trump is elected, there is even a chance that we could see constructive discussions between Beijing, Moscow and Washington.
While Moscow would not be interested in Washington interfering in Russia’s current partnership with China, this begs the question.
Who is actually a better U.S. President for Russia? Think about it. Russia is perfectly satisfied with its partnership with China. It’s a mutually beneficial friendship, so why would Moscow want to change anything?
However, if Trump indeed fulfills all of his presidential campaign promises, there may be a problem. Trump once promised to put additional taxes on China’s export.
Such a move would only strengthen the friendship between Russia and China. So in terms of Russia’s partnership with China, it’s actually unclear who would be a better U.S. President for Putin’s long-term plans.
Ukraine: Clinton’s actions could unleash World War 3
Trump still wins in a number of other spheres for Russia. In fact, Russia could easily convince Trump to put pressure on America’s allies, including Saudi Arabia, to reduce global oil prices.
Interestingly, Trump has previously promised to toughen sanctions against Iran, which would prevent Iranian oil from entering the global market. That means the price on black gold, the key product of Russia’s export, would skyrocket.
In this scenario, Russia wins.
As for the two and a half year long conflict in Ukraine, there is even a risk of war between Russia and the U.S. That, of course, if Clinton is elected president.
Ukraine’s conflict would allow Clinton to win the hearts of Republicans in Congress. Clinton would certainly meet Congress halfway and by finally providing Ukraine with lethal weapons.
The legislation that allows sending lethal weapons into Ukraine is still in Congress. And while current U.S. President Barack Obama hasn’t signed it, Clinton would.
Russian and even Western political experts agree that sending lethal weapons into Ukraine would only make matters worse. In fact, there is a huge risk of Russia’s military campaign in the Baltics if the legislation is signed.
There is also no doubt that Clinton would be more harsh towards Russia than Obama. That’s what she has promised throughout her presidential campaign, and that’s what her voters expect her to do.
Trump, meanwhile, has an entirely different opinion about Ukraine. The Republican candidate has previously said he would leave the Ukrainian conflict alone.
Trump said America’s interference in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, would lead to World War 3. And Trump has a point there. There is actually a huge risk of World War 3.
Syria: Clinton’s position could trigger World War 3, too
As for the Syrian crisis, Clinton and Trump have a very different opinion. Russia has been a key player in the Syrian war for years now, but the U.S. has so far refused to cooperate with Moscow on Syria.
That’s basically the root of all the horrors we see in Syria today. Clinton has never said she rules out a dialogue with Putin on Syria.
But Clinton has close ties with the Obama administration, where Clinton herself worked. Clinton cannot openly criticize Obama’s actions regarding Syria.
So it’s actually unpredictable what would be Clinton’s actions against Russia’s involvement in Syria if she became U.S. President. It could either turn into a frozen conflict or even result in World War 3.
As for Trump’s position on Russia’s military involvement in Syria, it’s more predictable. Trump has previously praised Russia’s military campaign in Syria because Moscow is eliminating ISIS.
Although Trump himself admitted he is not a fan of Bashar al-Assad, he reminded that Assad is also killing ISIS militants. Just like Russia is. So the Republican candidate said it’s actually a good thing that Moscow is “bombing the sh-t out of ISIS” in Syria.
So is it Trump or Clinton?
Clinton’s presidency is more likely to unleash World War 3 with Russia.
Trump’s presidency, meanwhile, is predicted to be chaotic and could unleash World War 3, too. This time, with any other country that would interpret Trump’s intentions as threatening.
Yes, there is actually a huge percentage of people believing in this theory.
However, there is one major advantage of Clinton’s presidency for Russia. It’s her predictability and pragmatism.
Trump, meanwhile, is the most mysterious dark horse of the 21st century. Since Trump has never dealt with politics before, it’s actually difficult to predict his actions as U.S. President.
It’s difficult to predict whether his actions will be different from his presidential campaign promises. It’s also difficult to predict whether fellow Republicans in Congress will ever let him do anything they don’t agree with.
Only a few people in Congress are actually interested in amending relations with Russia. So even if Trump is truly keen on making Russia America’s partner, Congress will hardly let him do anything about it.
Trump vs Clinton: What polls say?
The BBC’s poll of polls indicates that both Clinton and Trump have a 45% chance of winning November 8’s election. Clinton had been considered to be the front-runner before the FBI’s statements about her emails last week.
That was a turning point for Trump, who, according to various polls, managed to shorten the distance considerably. Some polls say Clinton is only 1 point ahead, while others say the two candidates have an equal chance of winning.
So it all comes down to who actually turns up at polling stations on Tuesday. The majority of non-whites and females are voting in favor of Clinton. The majority of whites and males, meanwhile, support Trump.
So who has the saying in the U.S.? Whites and males or non-whites and females?
