World CPI Still Sputtering Around 1 Percent

World CPI Still Sputtering Around 1 Percent

World CPI Still Sputtering Around 1 Percent by Eric Bush, CFA 

Our basic world CPI proxy, which takes the average year-over-year change in the CPI of 33 countries, was just 1.14% as of 7/31/2016.  It has now been more than a year and half since our world CPI proxy registered a year-over-year change of 1.4% or more. This series has been unusually range bound (1.06%-1.31%) since the beginning of 2015. It is increasingly difficult to predict where this series is heading. Recent moves in commodity prices (oil and gold, specifically), would suggest global inflationary pressures are increasing. The improvement in the Citi Inflation Surprised Index would also point towards higher CPI figures globally. On the other hand, however, deflationary forces out of China (currency depreciation and contraction in FX reserves) as well as the performance of stocks relative to the performance of long bonds (bonds outperforming stocks) would seems to advocate for less global inflation. Perhaps given the countervailing forces in the global macro environment the world CPI proxy will just continue to sputter on at around a 1% year-over-year rate.

Two Sigma’s Venn outlines factor performance for March

EuropeEquities did well last month as most market watchers have noted that Value outperformed growth. In his March Factor Performance report, Alex Botte of Venn by Two Sigma noted that March was a strong month for the global Equity factor, especially in developed markets. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more He said Europe Read More

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