Solaredge Technologies is scheduled to release its next earnings report on Tuesday after closing bell, and Wall Street is expecting earnings of 41 cents per share on $129 million in revenue for its fourth fiscal quarter. The company’s stock plunged on Thursday as investors chewed on the news about Tesla’s plans to combine with SolarCity and produce its own solar products. However, Solaredge Technologies reversed course on Friday and continued climbing on Monday in anticipation of Tuesday’s earnings report.
The company’s shares climbed by nearly 2% to as high as $17.83, although they remain well below the 52-week high of $33.70.
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Clues from SolarCity’s earnings report
JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster revised his estimates for Solaredge Technologies and released the updated numbers last week. His estimates follow his analysis on SolarCity’s revised guidance. SolarCity is also set to release its earnings results tomorrow after closing bell.
Coster noted that the broad trends in the U.S. residential solar market indicate that growth is slowing. He noted that Solaredge shares already price in a major slowdown in the market as they have plunged 46% year to date, compared to the S&P 500’s 5.5% gain in the same timeframe.
He called Solaredge Technologies’ valuation going into tomorrow’s earnings report “quite interesting.” The stock trades at about eight times consensus P/E for fiscal 2017. At current levels, he believes Solaredge is de-risked, and he sees the read-across from Enphase Energy as “somewhat reassuring,” which is why he continues to rate Solaredge at Overweight.
JPMorgan trims price target for Solaredge Technologies
Despite this rating, he hesitates to add to positions going into tomorrow’s print because the end-market has been in flux as residential solar demand shifts toward cash and loan-based sales rather than leasing. Also market share within the industry has been shifting toward local installers and away from regional and national brands. As a result, he cut his price target for Solaredge Technologies from $34 to $31 per share.
He cut 500 basis points of year over year unit growth from his fiscal 2017 forecast for the company, resulting in declines for sales and earnings per share growth. He expects tomorrow’s print to show 44 cents per share in earnings on $132 million in sales. This puts him ahead of consensus on both numbers and within management’s guidance of $125 million to $134 million.
He projects 448 megawatts of shipments, representing a 58% year over year growth, and an average selling price of 29 cents per watt, which is a 15% decline year over year. He expects the GAAP gross margin to come in at 31%, which would be a sequential decline of about 150 basis points but an increase of about 230 basis points year over year.
The JPMorgan analyst expects Solaredge Technologies to guide within his estimates for its first fiscal quarter. He’s projecting $150 million in sales, which is well ahead of the consensus at $137 million. He expects a gross margin of 31%, compared to the consensus of 30.5%, and 516 megawatts in shipments with an average selling price of 29 cents per watt.