Shares of Fitbit stock surged last night after the company’s earnings beat. They climbed by as much as 13.6% to $14.95 during regular trading hours on Wednesday as analysts shared their analysis of last night’s print. Wall Street seems pretty pleased with it overall, although it still wasn’t enough to trigger a slew of price target increases or to fully convince bears that now is the time to upgrade. In fact, Fitbit received at least two price targets cut following last night’s print.
Demand for Fitbit’s products remained strong
The fitness wearable maker posted adjusted earnings of 12 cents per share beating consensus and the high end of its guidance by a penny. Sales were $587 million, compared to the consensus of $578 million and management’s guide of $565 million to $585 million. Fitbit said demand for its Alta and Blaze wearables was strong as they combined to make up more than half of its sales, including accessories during the second quarter.
Wedbush analyst Nick McKay and team noted that the company maintained its full-year outlook even though some investors were concerned that demand for its products was sliding. Third quarter guidance was about as Wall Street was expected, and McKay sees the outlook of $490 million to $510 million as being “reasonable” because of the strength in the Alta and Blaze.
Apple Watch threat not so high
He believes that the threat from the Apple Watch looks exaggerated, citing data from IDC as smartwatch shipments fell year over year in the second quarter for the first time ever, tumbling 32% to 3.5 million. Apple Watch shipments plunged 55% to 1.6 million, while Fitbit Blaze shipments were around the same number as the Apple Watch number, management reported.
McKay has an $18 price target and Outperform rating on Fitbit.
Longbow Research analyst Joe Wittine has a $20 price target and Buy rating on the company, and he notes that sell-through ended up being far better than what the bear case was making it out to be. He expects the company will continue to see strong growth in units for nine to 12 months at least as interest in mature markets continues to grow and the company expands in China. Also Fitbit is planning to release the Charge HR 2 and Flex 2 in the fourth quarter, he said. He sees room for the company’s shares to go to $25 on the back of enthusiasm in next year’s products, scale in China and in the event of beat and raise quarters.
Fitbit receives price target cuts
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Nat Schindler and team believes investor sentiment was just “too negative for results this good.” He noted that it has a history of beating expectations and that one-third of its float is sold short. Interestingly though, he cut his price objective from $29 to $24 per share after taking a more conservative multiple, but he maintained his Buy rating.
Analysts at Leerink also cut their price target, moving from $18 to $16 per share, although they seemed rather happy with Fitbit’s second quarter results. They have a Market Perform rating but see risk in the fourth quarter and next year as a result of there not being many new products scheduled for those timeframes. Also they see the need to spend on research and development and marketing.
Stifel analysts also have a Hold rating on Fitbit, and they were unmoved by last night’s earnings beat. They do believe the company’s guidance can be achieved, but they don’t see room for upside and favor “a more subdued view of growth prospects” into fiscal 2017. They also see the need for caution in terms of research and development spending.