Is Tesla Motors’s Model 3 Impacting Luxury Gas Car Sales?

TeslaImage Credit: TMC (RubberToe)

Tesla’s Model 3 has received 400,000 reservations, a big deal for an electric car. For months, there have been discussions about how the less expensive Tesla could decrease sales of the BMW i3, Nissan LEAF and other all-electric car sales, but it appears the bigger effect will be on luxury gasoline & diesel cars. Recently on the TMC forum, questions about how these markets have been doing came up.

Tesla Model 3 affecting luxury car market?

RubberToe, one proactive member, shared a table showing the change in sales in March 2016 versus March 2015, April 2016 versus April 2015, May 2016 versus May 2015, and 2016 through May versus 2015 through May for a variety of potential Model 3 competitors. Almost every car on the list took a significant hit to sales.

As those numbers did not include June, Zachary Shahan of EV Obsession tallied up the June totals (did not include the Toyota Prius as they were not sure how much of a competitor the Prius is). The author added the BMW 4 Series, Acura ILX, Audi A3, Audi A4, and Mercedes CLA Class.

There was a decrease in sales of almost all the cars (June 2015 versus June 2016) except the Lexus ES and Mercedes CLS/E Class. The biggest decreases were in the BMW 4 Series (52%), Audi A6 (30%), Acura TLX (29%), Acura ILX (33%) and Infiniti Q50 (32%).

“Nothing to write home about for these automakers, and that’s amidst an overall increase in the US car market,” says Shahan.

What’s the reason?

There could be many reasons behind the decrease in sales of these cars.

“However, I’m not thinking up any significant, across-the-market influences that could be driving a considerable drop in demand/sales … other than the Model 3. Any ideas?” says Shahan.

There is still a year left for deliveries of the Model 3, provided everything goes according to the schedule. This number could swell as we approach the Model 3 roll-out.

Tesla expects to deliver about 50,000 vehicles during the second half of this year. In the first two quarters, it delivered only 29,190 vehicles, but if it hits this target, it will leave the automaker just short of the low end of its earlier expectation of 80,000 to 90,000 deliveries this year.

On Thursday, Tesla shares closed up 0.7% at $215.94. Year to date, the stock is down more than 9%, while in the last year, it is down almost 23%. The stock has a 52-week high of $286.65 and a 52-week low of $141.05.

For exclusive info on hedge funds and the latest news from value investing world at only a few dollars a month check out ValueWalk Premium right here.

Multiple people interested? Check out our new corporate plan right here (We are currently offering a major discount)



About the Author

Aman Jain
Aman is MBA (Finance) with an experience on both Marketing and Finance side. He has worked as a Risk Analyst for AIR Worldwide, and is currently leading VeRa FinServ, a Financial Research firm. Favorite pastimes include watching science fiction movies, reviewing tech gadgets, playing PC games and cricket. - Email him at amanjain@valuewalk.com

1 Comment on "Is Tesla Motors’s Model 3 Impacting Luxury Gas Car Sales?"

  1. What is going to be interesting is not the loss of sales, but the heavy drop in resale value of the used expensive luxury vehicle. After all, when you put 100,000 down on a MB S class, you tend to expect it to hold its value. However, once M3 hits the market, with a very decent car costing less than 50K, only a fool is going to buy a used 2 y.o. MB S class at say 70K. Nearly all will plummet below $50K, if not much lower.
    In addition, as M3s hit the streets, I think that we will see gas stations start to close up in anticipation of market drying up.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.