Math skills lie at the heart of understanding investments. If there is one thing I tell investment enthusiasists, it is to learn the mathematical models necessary to analyze an investment. Unfortunately, that advice is rarely followed. The aversion to “doing the numbers” is not confined to investing. It is a symptom of a more general problem that the media compounds by presenting public policy issues in terms of graphic images and flowery language while and leaving out the numbers. Such reporting may draw attention, just as splashy investment advice does, but as in the investment world it leads to muddled thinking.
Consider, for instance, the Black Lives Matter movement. I doubt that anyone would quarrel with the basic sentiment. What is odd is tying the sentiment to police shootings. Whether or not police shootings are a problem with the police or a problem with a violent society is a complex issue and one in which I have no expertise. But I do know numbers. As Heater MacDonald noted in her Wall Street Journal editorial, “Through July 9, 2,090 people have been shot this year in Chicago, including a 3-year-old boy shot on Father’s Day who will be paralyzed for life, an 11-year-old boy wounded on the Fourth of July, and a 4-year-old boy wounded last week.” A hugely disproportionate number of those victims and shooters were black. By comparison, there were 9 police shootings in the same time span. So if Black Lives Matter people are apparently protesting the wrong thing. But without the numbers who is to know. So when considering public policy, as when considering investments, start with the math. It may not give you the answer, but it will at least help you ask the right question.
Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter: Mistakes, Buybacks and Apple
Warren Buffett published his annual letter to shareholders over the weekend. The annual update, which has become one of the largest events in the calendar for value investors, provided Buffett's views on one of the most turbulent and extraordinary years for the financial markets in recent memory. Q4 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Read More