Global Inflation Data Still Soft But Improving In EM, Asia-Pacific by Eric Bush, CFA – Gavekal Capital Blog
Over the past three or four years, global inflation data releases have continuously underwhelmed. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index, the less followed cousin of the Citi Economic Surprise Index, has consistently been negative for the last several years. In the US, excluding a brief trip into positive territory in July 2014, the index has been negative since November 2011. In the Developed World in general, the index has been stuck in negative territory since May 2012. In the Emerging Markets, the index has been negative since June 2012. However, unlike in the Developed World, Emerging Markets inflation data has been improving and could post a positive print at any point now. Additionally, inflation surprises are now positive in Asia-Pacific and the current level is the highest level since June 2012. Where we are seeing the largest drops in the index are in Australia and Canada. The Australian Inflation Surprise Index is at the lowest level since January 2001 and the Canadian Inflation Surprise Index is at the lowest level since November 2007.
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