First Eagle Investment Management – An Investor’s Perspective On Brexit

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First Eagle Investment Management – An Investor’s Perspective On Brexit

First Eagle Investment Management – An Investor’s Perspective On Brexit

H/T Dataroma

The common wisdom among analysts at this writing is that British voters will choose to stay in the European Union (EU) when they cast their ballots on June 23, and bookies presently see this outcome as a 66% probability.1 Nevertheless, recent public polls suggest that the vote could be quite close, with the difference between the “Leave” and “Remain” camps within the polls’ margin of error. In this commentary, Senior Sovereign Analyst Idanna Appio reflects on the potential impact of a “Leave” decision on both the UK and the EU.

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Q: In the short term, how do you think a Leave vote would affect the British economy?

The possibility of a Leave vote is already having an impact. Consumption and investment indicators have slowed as firms delay their investment plans. House prices have taken a pause, as consumers put off big decisions while they wait for the vote.

If, in fact, British voters choose to exit the EU, the market reaction could be quite severe. The EU is Britain’s largest t