Pop the champagne! For the first time in 2016, all 8 asset classes we track are positive on the year, with the most surprising leader: commodities. After reaching multi year lows earlier this year,  commodities have strung together two straight months of strong positive performance, with April up 10.24% to bring the asset class to up 6.83% on the year {Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results}. This comes on the heels of two consecutive years recording losses of -30% in 2014 and 2015 (can you say…dead cat bounce).   Of course, most of the long only commodity ETFs live and die by the crude oil market, making the recent performance little more than a proxy on Oil prices. Oil saw major gains last month, but is part of a larger multi month V-reversal or W-reversal that is making it all about impossible for Managed Futures managers to trade.

Speaking of which, Managed Futures still remains positive on the year, up 1.75%, despite two months of losses as the down trends to start the year have reversed course (see oil as proof of that…). You can see in that pattern, however, the dynamic ability of managed futures to pare losses during such reversals, losing just a fraction of what commodities gained. And should commodities keep going higher, those losses should turn into gains.

Coincidently, Bonds and Stocks had the same April performance down to the basis point, while world stocks made up the most ground outside of commodities, suggesting that volatility has once again been sucked out of the market.

Asset Class Scoreboard April 2016_2

Asset Class Scoreboard April Chart 2016

(Disclaimer: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.)
Source: All ETF performance data from Morningstar.com
Sources: Managed Futures = Newedge CTA Index, Cash = 13 week T-Bill rate,
Bonds = Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND),
Hedge Funds= IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy (QAI)
Commodities = iShares GSCI ETF (GSG);
Real Estate = iShares DJ Real Estate ETF (IYR);
World Stocks = iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index Fund ETF (ACWX);
US Stocks = SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)