Apple stock tumbled below $100 per share following the iPhone maker’s last earnings report, and it doesn’t show signs of revival above the century mark anytime soon. But has Wall Street overreacted to the first-ever decline in iPhone sales and management’s weak June quarter guidance?
Perma-bull Brian White of Drexel Hamilton certainly thinks so even though his Apple Monitor showed trends that were weaker than historical seasonality. He cut his price target for Apple stock to $185 per share following the last earnings report in April, although he maintained his Buy rating.
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Apple Monitor shows weak April
White reported today that his Apple Monitor, which incorporates results from a basket of the company’s Taiwanese suppliers, indicated a 9% month over month decline in sales, which is worse than the 11-year average of flat performance. Key supplier Pegatron recorded a 27% month over month decline in sales, which is also much weaker than the five-year average of flat performance. It’s also weaker than last year’s 10% month over month decline in April.
The analyst believes that the weakness among the Taiwanese suppliers reflects the $2 billion inventory reduction in the third fiscal quarter that Apple management talked about recently. He said all of the suppliers in his monitor have now released their April results.
Too much “gloom and doom” on Apple stock?
White believes Apple stock offers “an exceptional value” at seven times his 2017 calendar year earnings per share estimate, excluding cash. Although there have been multiple reports suggesting that the iPhone 7 won’t be much of an upgrade from the iPhone 6s, the Drexel Hamilton analyst expects it to be a very strong cycle. A recent survey from UBS also suggested that the iPhone 7 cycle will be better than the iPhone 6s cycle as consumers appear to be more inclined to buy it than they were the iPhone 6s. White is also looking forward to new markets for Apple like India.
He believes that Apple stock is now “extremely oversold,” a view others are also starting to pick up. He also believes the “gloom and doom” sentiment surrounding the company is overdone and that the company’s problems stem from a difficult iPhone comparison versus the hugely popular iPhone 7 and a worse-than-expected macro environment.
White also argues that Wall Street isn’t giving the iPhone maker credit for “its expansive digital matrix across software, services and hardware that deliver a seamless experience for an installed base of 1 billion active devices” and believes that the company’s position, brand and ecosystem will enable it to excel in the Internet of Things in the future.
Apple stock edged higher by 0.29% to $93.06 per share during regular trading hours on Tuesday.