Earning And Sales Estimates Are Still Falling In The US

Earning And Sales Estimates Are Still Falling In The US by by Eric Bush, CFA – Gavekal Capital

Earning and sales estimates for US companies have yet to to turn the corner. Estimates continue to fall with most of the damage being done in the energy and material sectors. However, if the past month is any indication estimates may soon begin to rise.

Over the past six months, the median US company has seen its FY1 sales estimate fall by -2.49%. The median energy company has seen its FY1 sales estimate by -26.18%. Not a single US sector has seen its median sales or EPS estimate rise over the past six month. The silver lining is that over the past month the pace at which estimates have been revised downward seems to have slowed.  The median company in the US has seen its FY1 sales estimate fall by just 3 bps and its FY1 EPS estimate fall by just 4 bps over the past month. Analysts continue to expect the energy sector to have lower FY1 sales as the median FY1 sales estimate in the energy sector has fallen by over 4%. However, the median FY1 EPS estimate for energy companies is unchanged over the past month.

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In the charts below we show the percentage change in sales and EPS estimate over the past 1-month, 3-months and 6-months broken out by sector.

Earning And Sales Estimates

Earning And Sales Estimates

Earning & Sales Estimates