Value Investing, Videos

GLOBAL VALUE INVESTING AND CLONE INVESTING W/ MEB FABER [VIDEO]


GLOBAL VALUE INVESTING AND CLONE INVESTING W/ MEB FABER [VIDEO]

 

Published on Feb 8, 2016

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0:07
we study billionaires in this is episode 17 of the investors podcast podcasting
0:13
from Maryland investors podcast
0:20
puts in Sunrise the lessons the waters tell you when it’s cold will give you
0:26
double investing strategy your host Preston pitch alright how’s everybody
0:37
doing out there this is Preston passion I’m your host for the investors podcast
0:41
is usually accompanied by my co-host brodersen out in Denmark and we have a
0:46
guest on the show that a lot of people have been requesting by name on our
0:50
forum in on Twitter and they’re saying you’ve got to get this guy on the show
0:53
and it is mister Mebane Faber and Meb is the co-founder and chief investment
1:00
officer of Cambray investment management and Mets written a couple different
1:03
books and he also manages all the ETFs in separate accounts and private
1:08
investment funds out at Cambria met has written three different books he’s
1:12
written shareholders yield the Ivy portfolio and global value and i can
1:18
tell you how I came in contact with MEB in lebanon barons New York Times New
1:23
Yorker all these different really high-profile national news networks and
1:28
media networks and I came in contact with met the first time not to like
1:31
barons are anything but I was actually watching YouTube and he was giving the
1:35
speech about value investing in you specifically global value investing and
1:41
I’m listening to the speech and I said this guy gets it
1:44
this guy really understands what he’s talking about ever since I’ve been
1:48
falling you kinda closely Mebane I’ve been watching some your blog articles at
1:51
you right and you’re just a wealth of information and when I really like to
1:55
have you share that with your community you put it out there for a lot of people
1:58
to comment on and in you to share your knowledge and that’s the thing that we
2:01
really appreciate we’re so excited to bring on the show so I just want to
2:05
personally welcome you 906 wants to welcome you as well as the investors
2:08
podcast were just thrilled to have you here
2:11
great to be here so we watch this video of you giving this Google and you were
2:17
talking about value investing and I was really impressed with this and I want
2:20
you to really describe in generic terms it’s our audience can kind of really
2:25
understand your approach of international value investing approach
2:29
ok well valueless things that they do you know it’s been around for hundreds
2:35
of years but in the in the modern times at least a hundred years and grant is
2:39
often seen as the other security announces he’s in the USA pertaining to
2:45
stocks and so he wrote couple books many of your listeners will be familiar with
2:50
it is also a professor Warren Buffett is to do is is it into value stocks
2:59
securities is one of the ways he did it was earnings and would often average
3:05
those earnings over longer periods like five to seven years
3:09
be able to get on the anger from which to you as the benefit of the longer-term
3:14
perspective is it had investors ability to impose recessions as well as
3:22
expansions and be able to come up with a fundamental valuable desk
3:27
well you know many many people who practice that the years very successful
3:34
in academia as well as practitioners in a very famous another professor eighty
3:40
years later seven years later Robert Shiller recent Nobel laureate white
3:48
paper and then books basically applying the same logic the stock market as a
3:53
whole and said can we either job stream of earnings in his case he did ten years
3:58
probably just as nice round number just see inflation so that was called it
4:05
secretly adjusted price earnings ratio with a lot of people call the seller or
4:11
ten year p/e ratio the ratio now in what he found is that you know it’s not
4:16
rocket science valuation works it when you buy a market as a whole and it’ll
4:21
look out ten years the less you pay for something so the cheaper the Cape ratio
4:26
are your future returns are in the more you pay the lower your future returns it
4:32
so
4:33
the average over time the USA is around sixteen seventeen when you’re at it in
4:38
2005 and high as high as boorda by the late nineties and just visual right
4:47
around probably 24 now for this reason but we want to do is we said look this
4:53
works great new S
4:55
why not apply to all the markets in the world and so we were the first to go out
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and do this
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45 developed and emerging countries there’s another other companies that do
5:05
it attracted now where you can get free updates of the Cape ratio
5:12
turns out it works just the same way in foreign markets as it doesn’t us’ wanna
5:18
buy cheap markets and avoid the expensive yeah and members funny you
5:23
should mention stalked out because I just pull up some numbers from the side
5:27
of them in the show notes and if you rank them just stole a base to the Cape
5:32
erasure we can see that Russia
5:35
appears to be the most attractive choice the Cape ratios for point six which is
5:38
really really low you compare that to to the US’s twenty-four and then not being
5:43
the highest in the world with 40 so I just think it does that mean like
5:48
everything else you will just go in and buy see more short bin Laden’s us’
5:54
perhaps it was good and bad news you know
5:57
it’s boring to say but the USA is expensive but it’s not a bubble not
6:02
intrinsically expensive
6:04
Indian clothes that means is future expected returns expected to be lower
6:09
than normal and you know that doesn’t make for great TV and videos and
6:14
podcasts either but it’s the reality and there’s a futures returns and if you’re
6:19
perfect in so despite the fact you have a higher valuation of stocks could ease
6:28
the next year and that’s happened in the past but it does improve your odds and
6:34
it changes the probabilities in the future so you buy a market that’s the
6:40
chances are higher that you’re going to have a big fat loss
6:43
drawdown going forward and when the markets really cheap you have a sort of
6:47
that margin of safety there’s so many caveats this you know we often talk
6:52
about it it’s similar to a poker player or blackjack player who’s sitting at a
6:56
table made you something really dumb like in eighteen versus when the dealer
7:02
has a six the employer hair out and say why would anyone ever to 188 does that
7:08
at some point and it’s it’s a 10 it’s not impossible for markets to go out
7:14
with their expensive
7:15
bad news the USS expensive the good news is most of the rest of the world is
7:19
reasonably priced cheap so that foreign develop indexes around in before
7:26
emerging to the shellacking of the past years down around 13 and if you will get
7:31
a bucket of the cheap 25%
7:33
countries evaluation of around nine which is the lowest that book it’s been
7:38
since the bottom in a touch around that area in 30 min before that
7:46
we’ve said this on the show before but if people are listening to this and
7:49
you’re here in the numbers that members thrown out there so he would throw out a
7:53
ten as far as the Shiller p/e in general terms the easiest way to figure out what
7:58
the yield is that were referencing you just take one divided by the number that
8:02
we’re saying is if it’s a 10 about a 10% return so you take 1/10 it gives you 10
8:07
percent return if it’s a fifteen year ago 1/15 you get a seven and a half
8:11
percent return so just as a rule of them just so you guys can equate these
8:15
numbers with actual yields as he’s throwing out the different markets
8:19
man i’ve heard you talk about this in some of your other interviews and I
8:22
think it’s really important for you to highlight this for our audience and you
8:25
talk about the bias that domestic investors have for equities in their own
8:31
country had been giving it a variation of the east over the past couple years
8:37
and if the audience’s small oval path around a piece of paper and ask one
8:43
question I say what percentage of your stock allegations were excluding real
8:48
estate commodities and almost every time I gave this each in Phoenix and Tucson
8:59
last week and I said I guarantee you the number is going to be very close in both
9:05
the number was 69%
9:08
what thats called his country by where if you look at the world market cap but
9:16
every stock in the world measured by its size you would end up as broccoli
9:22
biggest market so that should be your starting agnostic investor John Bogle
9:29
Vanguard index would say my starting point is made in the USA
9:36
obviously investors put way more around 70% the USA because it’s comfortable
9:41
it’s what’s this isn’t just aus by as it happens it happens the UK
9:48
even more what is in those countries because their market cap sir even small
9:53
been so that should be the starting to move forward from that occur about the
10:02
biggest problem market cap waiting is over weight I value companies and
10:08
country and so you know in the eighties Japan at the highest ratio we’ve ever
10:15
seen almost a value on Google Docs double or the nineties in at the time
10:23
depends how world market cap
10:25
massive dragon and all the research shows that kept waiting while it is the
10:31
market it simply has no connection whatsoever in so much of the big markets
10:39
and studies show that by investing in the largest company in the S&P 500 for
10:45
example underperformed the S&P by about 3% a year that’s true of every sector so
10:51
you just excluder break that mark a plea
10:54
shortstop letters of the alphabet value where the CEO into college and all those
11:02
who are kept waiting so is applied to the global leaders of the countries are
11:08
much less
11:10
awesome I love that but let’s keep the show going
11:15
reacted prepared nine questions and kids all the way that the first one but the
11:21
second one so on the podcast our investment philosophy is deeply rooted
11:26
in investing that being said giving the current conditions with high valuations
11:32
we have discussed if our listeners should look more ahead funny man just
11:35
like druckenmiller in stores rather than Warren Buffett so who do you expect to
11:41
perform best the next say three to five years
11:44
getting all my money let me know if you guys find out you know it’s challenging
11:52
for investors most investors have you talked to them they have nothing so
11:57
you’ll talk to people this a value got any training guy or I’m a guy who knows
12:05
but the challenges take a step back and say let the data itself and
12:13
what works what has historically work in investigating and there’s a lot of
12:17
approaches that work in investing value works and following works and works in
12:23
the biggest challenge why one that has been so successful is not is not that
12:28
complicated investing cheap stocks high-quality
12:34
what’s beneficial as he sticks his system and so an example we have on the
12:40
blog reason he said if you just went wracked with Boston was doing his is
12:45
public stock picks up did it once a quarter when those pics Republic is
12:51
outperform doesn’t like
12:56
it’s been one of the top-performing mutual funds in the united states with
12:59
98% of all
13:03
however
13:05
underperformed the broad market in I think seven of the last nine years that
13:10
strategy to most investors if that was a mutual fund or your money manager would
13:16
have fired him after years or so you see these long cycles where certain types of
13:23
strategies out for so long winded answer your question but where we are in the
13:29
USA you know last year years 7 bull market stock valuations are getting
13:36
expensive in the best quadrant
13:40
when you’re in the us- is chief market is going up and so when I say you could
13:47
you say 200 day moving average or 10 months moving average but doesn’t exist
13:52
want measure is going up or down in the best bhajan is cheap and going up and
13:59
where we’ve been the past two years is expensive but going up a bad place to be
14:04
the problem is when that which you seen her last year in New Year we’re always
14:11
send you go from Steven going up she been going down
14:15
expensive in going up and even going down and expensive and going down is by
14:20
far the worst place to be and what you really want to move aside so a lot of
14:26
the strategy it’s only
14:28
nearly three weeks into the year but it’s been a pretty dramatic star where
14:33
us’ stocks going down and what’s working you plan out a lot of the investors and
14:39
managed futures funds are you know around 67 percent he said for a long
14:45
time or is hedging us’ stocks
14:49
you know nothing is perfect the best way to actually hedged not to take risk in
14:53
the first place
14:55
government bonds and then managed futures historically the best so we
15:00
loved one in macro guys but we love them
15:05
always so throughout throughout every every market cycle we think they have a
15:09
great place as a compliment strategies
15:15
alright fantastic answer to one of the ideas that you’re really famous for MEB
15:21
is providing a framework for imitating the best professional investors in the
15:25
world and you kinda hit on that on the last answer a little bit you’ve written
15:28
a book called The Ivy portfolio for anybody else out there we have we’ve got
15:34
a lot of questions on our form a lot of people and we get these questions just
15:37
street from email people say why don’t I just imitate the pics of Warren Buffett
15:41
can I do that and the answer is mad has written a book about this and it’s
15:46
called the IP portfolio but I’m really want to do is just kinda provide the
15:51
basic framework for this book and just kinda tell our audience a little bit
15:54
about this idea of mimicking imitating the best investors in the world just by
15:59
looking at their ten Q word just kind of expound upon that idea
16:04
the great news what a great leader because I just booked last week on this
16:09
topic it’s two hundred and probably sixty pages on this and best
16:15
where this goes back to his back in college I was applied tech engineering
16:20
student and was taking his famous hedge fund manager manages and it was a
16:29
security analysis and each week they would be a different hedge fund manager
16:33
or guest speaker so you can listen to guys like means the americorps a lot of
16:40
these really famous guys and
16:43
you would sit there and listen to say my god they will have four more resources
16:51
on a analyst they pay people to go to Walmart counting stopping all of these
17:00
resources and why wouldn’t I just paid what they’re doing and many people don’t
17:06
you know investors with the published their holdings and its within 45 days
17:15
delay the holdings as the end of the year would come out February 15 there’s
17:21
a caveat to these filings such as you know it’s only the long picture the
17:27
short futures and derivatives and so you wanna be able to attract investors who
17:33
have a long time rise in our stock pickers attract high frequency guys the
17:40
guys guys none of that works but that’s a great example so I said I could never
17:47
get comfortable with the possibility does this strategy I have no idea is I
17:53
can’t and so after a few years i said i miss u interns and we did this by hand
18:01
and when got downloaded all of the files online
18:04
this is all three you look it up on a number of websites holdings like whale
18:09
was and I said I’d pull together all these filings founded on bias database
18:14
and said let’s has historically how it works and sold by example we just
18:20
mentioned where we said you know what would it look like the trackball said
18:23
that it turns out it works
18:25
actually great fact it works great for many of these managers and in some cases
18:30
the performance is as good or better than the managers because you’re not a
18:35
higher paying them the two percent to 20 percent and so we always read this new
18:43
book and in a way that you can
18:47
you know five or ten managers and you always will and as a stock screen or you
18:55
know that idea of new investments you may be interested potential stocks down
19:01
more than simply outsourced favorite managers and say let them do the work
19:09
you know these are the michael jordan’s of finance and so instead of allocating
19:13
to what my brokers as my next door neighbor Melissa Gorman pick my
19:17
portfolio is I think it’s a great way to invest and we’ve been doing it that is
19:23
awesome
19:24
just a quick follow-up question to this idea of tracking these all stars that
19:30
are investing with just awesome returns one of the things we talked about on our
19:35
show a lot and my concern with sometimes telling people different pics is that
19:39
they will lack the conviction to kind of stay with it starts moving against them
19:44
especially in the early part of taking that position so is that something that
19:49
you talked about in this new book that you said this is just coming out
19:51
investing with the house and if it’s not a real curious to hear your thoughts on
19:56
this idea of conviction whenever you’re basically falling somebody else’s moving
20:00
you might not fully understand why they’re taking that position
20:03
investors are always their own worst enemy and it’s not just retail
20:07
institution is as well
20:09
well where the biases we have
20:12
organs and you know this happened over and over again and all of the academic
20:18
research shows that investors anywhere from one to four percent a year by
20:23
buying what’s really bearish investors as a group ever get it right regardless
20:34
of whether active regardless you know commodities emerging markets are great
20:42
example right now no one wants those cheap countries we were talking about
20:46
earlier that you know it’s gonna listen to spot you know I’m gonna go by Brazil
20:51
and Russia and Eastern Europe in Spain and Italy and all these little staple in
20:58
a little crew in Egypt just make it interesting because it’s hard to do in
21:03
so that the same problems that will take too much risk it that’s part of the
21:12
reason I became a colin is to make these rules say look I know given these
21:17
parameters I’m gonna make a lot of mistakes and so the same challenges of
21:21
by picking stocks or hold investor is this you know can you put in rules and a
21:29
great example is the best example would you still trapped under seven and nine
21:35
years despite that outperformed the S&P by fire six percent a year while the
21:40
best minds in the country you know can you follow stuff yet it will be a down
21:45
thirty when he received your last year it is hard so I don’t know if there’s
21:50
any easy answers but the biggest is so right down and investment you know some
21:56
people call it a policy that accounts for any possible scenario and understand
22:01
enough market is just a look I understand that for example my buy whole
22:05
portfolio will go down by 35% of my stock portfolios multiple times in his
22:15
career in if you didn’t really behave properly within days go poorly my
22:19
favorite quote is investing is the only business when they go on sale people run
22:24
out of the store
22:25
that applies very broadly any strategy not just the stock-picking yeah great
22:32
answer
22:32
recently written a blog post about the performance of areas in the system which
22:37
touched upon this what did you learn from studying international markets in
22:43
2015 and do you think they’re in regions that investors should pay special
22:48
intention to introduce 1600 is a long time that foreign markets are cheap but
22:53
that doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper we expect the cheapest bucket and we
22:57
have ETFs that track this you know to have double-digit returns in in the morn
23:03
stock markets whereas in Aus both single digit returns but historically we did a
23:09
book called global asset allocation
23:12
his team of the most famous
23:16
all is well as recommended by David Slade said or Muhammad Ali area and in
23:25
all these same as investors that manages all recommended an asset allocation as
23:32
they say you should put this much and gold is much in stocks as much in
23:36
Oregon’s bodies whatever you find his it’s actually really surprising they
23:43
almost always recommend some in global stocks and some realize that has reached
23:51
commodities
23:53
there’s a different helicases
23:56
this stunning take away from that pool was you exclude the probative portfolio
24:01
is a little different because it has a higher education to cash
24:05
all of the asset allocation is in that book
24:08
we’re within one percentage point return of each other over the years they all
24:13
groups in this little range of 5%
24:17
turns around and historically since 1972 they had different in any given year so
24:26
here’s the challenging part is that you went back to 1972 system all gonna be
24:33
able to predict the best asset allocation and that turns out it would
24:37
have been the area which is an endowment style so its head in growth and having a
24:43
surprising is that done well but ask for years and said a layer on the average
24:51
cost of a mutual fund today was 1.25 percent that would have taken the
24:56
portfolio of the best asset allocation in our entire book made it all is that
25:01
is the worse
25:03
and so what investors spend so much time thing you know this is the strategic
25:07
Gaza is you know our stocks expenses raising raids you know what about
25:15
commodities that turns out the actual allocation is not that is what is
25:20
important is the boring stuff the basic blocking and tackling these missions and
25:26
taxes and on top of that if you bear on the average national advisor which is 1%
25:32
in the you s up 22.2% you take the best-performing cristobal allegation or
25:39
worse the worse and that’s a pretty profound take away from our studies a
25:46
lot of the boring stuff really has a massive impact in then we did one more
25:50
study what we said you know we’re gonna update allocation once-a-decade with the
25:56
best
25:57
allocation of the past
26:00
so what worked in the seventies blood in you that all cases the eighties and
26:03
nineties
26:06
that would have cost you an additional one and a half percent a year by chasing
26:11
lies the challenge and our business is that you know people in the seventies
26:18
you know gold was incredible in the seventies now occasions most cases the
26:23
seventies bola work then and probably all the managers that would have been
26:28
fired would have done much better in the eighties you know and so the challenge
26:32
right now for example the way we see the world is that what is what is dear is
26:37
the worst a lot of these emerging markets universally hated right now
26:45
2007
26:47
everyone’s talking about the bricks modalities big institutions for you know
26:53
eight years and it’s the opposite so getting going back to the idea that is
27:00
not have a whole country bias
27:03
I say doesn’t really matter be
27:07
while a favor cortisol is really hard to be is very simple I think we need it on
27:14
the blog the Trinity because he put his third in global stocks
27:20
third in global bonds in its third in training following tapers strategies
27:25
features you could call any sort of global trend
27:31
and that’s a really nice portfolio because it performs well in most market
27:35
and Barmes so it’s a long winded but we think there’s a lot of opportunity or an
27:41
assets because the US’s had a pretty pleased
27:48
so when we look at the International value investing strategy we see that
27:53
Japan yen right now is offering some really good valuations their PE ratio is
27:58
is very low relative to a lot of other locations with that said I don’t trust
28:04
the Japanese currency at this point I feel like we’re upon some interesting
28:08
times in this coming year especially as their cue cue you seems like they’re not
28:15
going to be really kind of continuing that anymore I see that making their
28:19
currency extremely strong in a very difficult for their equities so
28:23
specifically with Japan how do you see this playing out with their valuations
28:28
being so low and they’ve got all these other currency issues I’m just curious
28:31
to hear your opinion
28:33
casey’s there’s a good quote all the crazies are in difficulty just confusing
28:40
in as americans you know we benefit from having the reserve currency and a lot of
28:47
Americans don’t really think a lot about you know they think of him in terms of a
28:52
Down last year that means the occasion to use out america’s cheap or expensive
29:01
in Europe and it’s more expensive to go skiing that’s it really the only thing
29:05
in terms of investing but so is the broader question will get to New Yorkers
29:12
who returns over time being that if inflation is fairly stable keyword being
29:17
over time you know in any given year ago down 30% as we’ve seen in the past few
29:24
years here last year
29:26
USDollar very strong against number over time they’re fairly stable because they
29:31
just so when thinking about hedging or not hedging equity markets I’m actually
29:37
agnostic but you have to pick one of the other and stick with it there you have
29:42
exposure over time it’ll be awash with Florida government bonds in the markets
29:50
a little different because that’s a low volatility a sec add bolts led to nasa
29:55
does it is we have seen that case we think hedging makes a lot of sense
30:00
more about trading currencies themselves as an entire it turns out you can apply
30:07
very simple factors that you apply in stock in this thing that were trading
30:13
currencies to such factors as value has traded in momentum as carry the most
30:20
famous and then you can essentially currencies as nasa it correlates very
30:27
little we have had a crazy but it never lost it because people were that
30:34
interested I think that’s changing more and more interested in the past few
30:40
years now getting on to Japan you know when you look back at the history of
30:45
valuation of many of these markets because
30:48
if you look at the left side of the chart of cheap countries is made it
30:54
almost gives you know as you think about because it’s it’s the worst geopolitical
30:59
environment worst economies Brazil is probably the worst depression is my God
31:07
why when he was part of the reason that works in a lot of those countries stock
31:12
markets are so deeply rooted she because they did a lot already many of those
31:18
markets there’s something like inter 15 markets around the world
31:21
down over a lot of those markets GPE because the peas gone down some but it’s
31:28
going down 40 60 80 per cent pieces case 95 but the neighbors change if you go
31:35
back to the late nineties lot of Asian countries where the T bucket back to the
31:40
before that it was the Scandinavian countries were in their banking crisis
31:44
in the early eighties the USA Laurel so usually what happens is when markets
31:50
there’s a lot of reasons why you shouldnt or would never invest their
31:54
Russia great example years ago when they were doing very least mean they’re
31:59
shooting down commercial they were invading country’s oil going down all
32:04
these reasons russia has the story slowly fades away you know when things
32:09
go from totally missiles are only slightly less that’s when you can have
32:14
something big in japan is one of my favorite examples valuation because
32:18
people also talked about that you used relative or absolute valuation meaning
32:24
should I just say the average over time for all countries around 16 17 and use
32:29
that would you compare them to their own history and I always say this because
32:36
bubbles in the presence of such lingering influence in Japan investment
32:42
to do its own history the entire way down in the nineties in two thousand
32:48
years it was cheaper outside his door ok with this but that’s because it is an
32:54
asset bubbles depends finally got interesting years ago but no one cared
32:59
anymore and then they had one of the biggest ever for their stock market but
33:04
of course hammered as well as interesting it’s not it’s not hitting
33:09
our filters as one of the cheapest the world though lot of the countries are
33:14
changing very quickly with market volatility and China another example
33:19
that’s getting close to the Jeep bucket but not quite there yet so we think it’s
33:23
interesting but not getting interesting so map folio audience out there and
33:31
perhaps also for president I could you give us some stock tickers if you want
33:36
to live it’s a jabs investing in is really cheap countries and we have a
33:42
fund invests in the top quartile of trees on global value well and it does
33:49
it
33:51
neglected to mention is that if you’re doing it she only 10 rebounds that once
33:57
year at the most you can rebalance at every two years but you need to give
34:01
these countries in stocks under work that you read about destroy the returns
34:07
so you need to give it some reason so we’re on the phone based on its very
34:12
concentrated its my personal largest holding you can also do a lot of things
34:16
as a single country follows the trade for almost everything developed and
34:20
emerging country out there ETS had a lot of the big-name writers and simply about
34:26
you probably were great great anyway so there’s no two ways to the very least
34:33
put at least half into
34:36
uniform stocks alright map so the question I’ve got in a lot of our
34:41
audience is really want to hear your opinion on this
34:45
and they’re curious about the USA equity market in the coming year and they’re
34:50
also curious about your opinion on what the Fed might do from this point forward
34:54
so we’ve got the Fed that raised their quarter of a percent federal funds rate
34:59
there in the middle of December I’m of the opinion that they’re not gonna raise
35:02
rates anymore in the 2016 at all I’m curious to hear your opinion on that or
35:08
if you think that they might do once or twice more and I’m curious to hear your
35:12
opinion on what you think’s gonna happen with the USA equity market specifically
35:16
question is easy the first part of this I had no idea so we can go ahead and
35:21
like Charlie Munger style I got nothing in the second quarter USA equities you
35:29
know if you go Google on our blog I dunno article last summer 11 bears
35:34
charts one bullish
35:37
it in detailed eleven different factors surrounding the us- markets such as
35:43
mergers and acquisitions nearing an all-time
35:47
unprofitable IPO companies near an all-time high valuations such as
35:52
Schiller and there’s another example median price earnings that the stocks in
35:58
the S&P 500 is the highest it’s ever been since the 1960’s allocation of
36:05
investors that equities is one of the highest it’s ever been which
36:08
historically low single-digit returns so there’s all these indicators say you
36:14
should be bearish will have very low expectations for us’ however I said
36:19
there’s one bliss and it’s the actual aids drug card that matters more than
36:25
all of these combined and now is the trend
36:28
when the trend is negative 200 day moving average whatever baby then it
36:35
will literally be no reason to invest in stocks and so that happened this quarter
36:41
where it slipped very quickly when bears and ran back and then now you in many
36:47
this is this is already turned bearish and all the small-cap mid-cap has been
36:53
there for a long time on foreign stocks and commodities
36:58
so going into the beginning of the year we have an old white paper on a
37:02
qualitative approach to classification and simple changeling approach but it is
37:10
calling approaches would say you’re going to be mostly a hundred percent
37:14
cash and so I think the going forward you know absolutely warranted in us-
37:22
markets you know we’re much more positive on but if the us- is in a bear
37:29
market which many foreign markets already in very likely drag down or on
37:34
as well so we are weird costs in the you s perfect the last question one
37:40
investment book has had one of the biggest impact on your way of thinking
37:44
big question so I realized I beating problem so there’s there’s many many
37:50
books that I have ingested a weekly basis
37:54
my favorite is called to the optimists in it is a most important thing is we
38:00
think investors understand market is so to be able to look back and say look you
38:07
s stock market has declined by eighty percent
38:10
markets that have completely closed down or you know was jus the unique market
38:19
over the past 15 years the opposite is written by you may want to read it from
38:25
the library cuz its I think $100 book this beautiful coffee-table book books I
38:30
think twenty markets stocks bonds bills and there’s a few wonderful takeaways
38:36
which is the call the 521 rule this is roughly what stocks bonds and bills and
38:44
return the past 15 years in global markets on average real returns asian
38:51
stocks rose 5% the USA one of the top markets in the world maybe a little
38:58
order to better I think South Africa was the best but they were countries like
39:02
Austria that they see a return nothing over the entire period and in bonds
39:06
returned about percent rounding up to 20 remember in the bills with inflation
39:13
roundhouse roundup 21 again to make it easy to 521 but it gives a lot of
39:19
wonderful examples and on top of that you can go Google
39:24
Credit Suisse but they all the local investment returns year and they put out
39:30
about in their free and so you made up of my blogs I posed to download these
39:35
every year it’s one of my favorite it’s a Christmas Eve waiting out there
39:40
public as they tackle different concepts each year they tackled it ratios they’ve
39:45
tackled know if you sorted global markets on trailing GDP and NFLX returns
39:52
what does best and momentum and a wonderful education on all those updates
39:59
that that’s probably my favorite book is to take a look at it and thank you so
40:06
much for coming on our show like this information you’re sharing with their
40:09
audiences just just total abundance we can’t thank you enough this was just
40:14
fantastic and I know you’re gonna be a lot of people from our audience coming
40:18
over to your site and want to read more about you have to hear in this interview
40:21
so if you could give them a handoff to your different sites and some of the
40:24
things you have out there so they can learn more about you maybe some of your
40:27
books please share that with our audience right now if you could always
40:31
find me a favor dot com is my blog has over 100 articles is made it all the way
40:38
through this podcast and go to facebook.com all even send you a free
40:45
book yet rated though you know a lot of studies in there’s a handful of white
40:54
papers on the SSS are in network of course in five books and reading too
41:02
busy alright so thank you so much for coming on the show we just really
41:07
appreciate your time thank you
41:09
alright so that’s all we got for you guys this weekend if you guys go over
41:13
website I guarantee you’re gonna really learn a lot all the stuff that he was
41:17
talking about we’re gonna have that in our show notes if you guys need or
41:20
you’re not hearing on the shower you don’t have the opportunity to write it
41:23
down
41:24
just go to our show notes after you’re done on the investors podcast dot com
41:28
and you guys cannot pull up all that information and all the links also
41:32
please sign up on our email list which I read a book every other episode we send
41:36
out a free executive summary of all the books we read we don’t do any spammer
41:40
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41:44
question you wanna get played on a show we haven’t played a question a little
41:46
bit but we’re getting ready to do our next episode we’re gonna play a bunch of
41:50
questions from our audience you can get those questions played you go to ask
41:54
investors dot com and you record your questions there for anybody that it’s
41:58
the question played on a show we’ll send you a free signed autographed copy of
42:01
her book The Warren Buffett accounting that’s all we have for you guys and
42:04
we’ll see you guys next week
42:06
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42:10
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Invest With The House by Meb Faber