FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios For 2016 Stress Testing

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released the economic scenarios that will be used by certain financial institutions with total consolidated assets of more than $10 billion for stress tests required under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010.

The baseline, adverse, and severely adverse scenarios include key variables that reflect economic activity, including unemployment, exchange rates, prices, income, interest rates, and other salient aspects of the economy and financial markets.

The baseline scenario represents expectations of private sector economic forecasters. The adverse and severely adverse scenarios are not forecasts, rather, they are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength and resilience of financial institutions and their ability to continue to meet the credit needs of households and businesses under stressed economic conditions.

The FDIC coordinated with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in developing and distributing these scenarios.

FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios For 2016 Stress Testing

Date Euro area real GDP growth Euro area inflation Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) Developing Asia real GDP growth Developing Asia inflation Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) Japan real GDP growth Japan inflation Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) U.K. real GDP growth U.K. inflation U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound)
Q1 2001 3.8 1.1 0.879 5 1.7 106 2.6 -1.2 125.5 4.6 0.1 1.419
Q2 2001 0.1 4.1 0.847 5.5 2.2 106.1 -0.7 -0.3 124.7 3.1 3.1 1.408
Q3 2001 0.3 1.4 0.91 4.7 1.1 106.4 -4.4 -1.1 119.2 2.6 1 1.469
Q4 2001 0.5 1.7 0.89 8.4 0.2 106.9 -0.5 -1.4 131 1.4 0 1.454
Q1 2002 0.9 3 0.872 7.6 0.4 107.3 -0.9 -2.7 132.7 1.6 1.9 1.425
Q2 2002 2 2 0.986 8.1 1.2 104.8 4.3 1.7 119.9 3.3 0.9 1.525
Q3 2002 1.6 1.6 0.988 7.3 1.3 105.5 2.6 -0.7 121.7 3.9 1.4 1.57
Q4 2002 0.3 2.4 1.049 6.4 0.9 104.5 1.5 -0.4 118.8 3.6 1.9 1.61
Q1 2003 -0.9 3.3 1.09 6.5 3.6 105.5 -2.2 -1.6 118.1 2.9 1.6 1.579
Q2 2003 0.4 0.3 1.15 2.3 1.2 104 5.2 1.7 119.9 3.7 0.3 1.653
Q3 2003 2 2.2 1.165 14.2 0 102.6 1.7 -0.7 111.4 3.1 1.7 1.662
Q4 2003 3.1 2.2 1.26 12.9 5.6 103.4 4.2 -0.6 107.1 3 1.7 1.784
Q1 2004 2 2.3 1.229 5.5 4 101.4 3.8 -0.9 104.2 2.7 1.3 1.84
Q2 2004 2.2 2.4 1.218 7.1 4.1 102.8 0.3 1.1 109.4 2.2 1 1.813
Q3 2004 1.3 2 1.242 8.2 3.9 102.7 0.6 0.1 110.2 0.9 1.1 1.809
Q4 2004 1.5 2.4 1.354 6.3 0.9 98.9 -1 1.7 102.7 1.9 2.4 1.916
Q1 2005 0.6 1.5 1.297 10.3 2.9 98.6 0.8 -2.7 107.2 2.8 2.6 1.889
Q2 2005 2.8 2.2 1.21 8.9 1.5 98.9 5.4 -1.2 110.9 4.4 1.9 1.793
Q3 2005 3 3.2 1.206 9.3 2.3 98.6 1.4 -1.3 113.3 4.1 2.7 1.77
Q4 2005 2.4 2.5 1.184 11.6 1.7 98.1 0.7 0.7 117.9 5.9 1.4 1.719
Q1 2006 3.7 1.7 1.214 10.9 2.4 96.8 1.7 1.3 117.5 1.5 1.9 1.739
Q2 2006 4.4 2.5 1.278 7.1 3.2 96.7 1.7 -0.1 114.5 1.2 3 1.849
Q3 2006 2.6 2 1.269 10.3 2.1 96.4 -0.3 0.5 118 0.5 3.3 1.872
Q4 2006 4.4 0.9 1.32 11.1 3.8 94.6 5.2 -0.4 119 2.3 2.6 1.959
Q1 2007 3.2 2.2 1.337 13.7 3.6 94 4 -0.2 117.6 3.9 2.6 1.969
Q2 2007 2.5 2.3 1.352 10.6 4.9 91.9 0.6 0 123.4 2.4 1.7 2.006
Q3 2007 2 2.1 1.422 8.6 7.4 90.6 -1.5 0.1 115 3.1 0.2 2.039
Q4 2007 2 4.9 1.46 12.9 6.1 89.4 3.4 2.2 111.7 3.1 4 1.984
Q1 2008 2.3 4.2 1.581 7.1 8.1 88 2.7 1.3 99.9 1 3.7 1.986
Q2 2008 -1.3 3.2 1.575 6.1 6.4 88.7 -4.6 1.6 106.2 -2.2 5.7 1.991
Q3 2008 -2.2 3.2 1.408 3.1 2.8 91.6 -4.1 3.6 105.9 -6.6 5.8 1.78
Q4 2008 -7.1 -1.4 1.392 0.1 -0.9 92.3 -12.5 -2.2 90.8 -8.7 0.5 1.462
Q1 2009 -11.3 -1.1 1.326 3.8 -1.4 94.2 -15.1 -3.6 99.2 -6.1 -0.1 1.43
Q2 2009 -0.8 0 1.402 15.4 2.3 92.3 7.1 -1.7 96.4 -0.8 2.2 1.645
Q3 2009 1.2 1.1 1.463 12.6 3.9 91.3 0.4 -1.2 89.5 0.6 3.5 1.6
Q4 2009 2 1.6 1.433 9 5.2 90.7 7.1 -1.6 93.1 1.4 3 1.617
Q1 2010 1.7 1.8 1.353 9.8 4.6 89.8 5.8 0.9 93.4 1.5 4 1.519
Q2 2010 3.9 2 1.229 9.8 3.4 91.1 4.6 -1.2 88.5 3.3 3.2 1.495
Q3 2010 1.9 1.6 1.36 8.8 3.9 88.4 6.1 -2.1 83.5 2 2.3 1.573
Q4 2010 2.1 2.6 1.327 9.3 7.7 87.4 -2 1.3 81.7 0.4 4 1.539
Q1 2011 3.5 3.6 1.418 9.5 6.3 86.5 -7.7 -0.4 82.8 3 6.7 1.605
Q2 2011 0 3.2 1.452 7.1 5.4 85.3 -2.2 -0.4 80.6 1.4 4.7 1.607
Q3 2011 -0.1 1.4 1.345 5.9 5 87.4 11.2 0.3 77 3.3 3.7 1.562
Q4 2011 -1.2 3.5 1.297 6.1 3.4 87.4 0.9 -0.7 77 0.6 3.4 1.554
Q1 2012 -0.7 2.7 1.333 7.1 3.2 86.4 3.6 1.9 82.4 0.9 2.1 1.599
Q2 2012 -1.3 2.3 1.267 5.9 4 88.1 -1.3 -0.7 79.8 -0.7 2 1.569
Q3 2012 -0.6 1.6 1.286 6.5 1.9 86.3 -1.9 -2.1 77.9 4.1 2.3 1.613
Q4 2012 -1.7 2.4 1.319 7.2 3.7 86 -0.4 0 86.6 -0.2 4 1.626
Q1 2013 -1 1.1 1.282 6.3 4.2 86.3 4 0.4 94.2 2.7 2.9 1.519
Q2 2013 1.6 0.5 1.301 7 3.1 87.3 3.1 0.6 99.2 2.4 1.7 1.521
Q3 2013 1 1.3 1.354 7.4 3.5 86.8 2 2.4 98.3 3.8 2.1 1.618
Q4 2013 0.8 0.3 1.378 6.5 4 85.9 -0.7 2.3 105.3 2.6 1.5 1.657
Q1 2014 0.9 0.6 1.378 5.9 1.5 86.9 5 0.7 103 2.6 1.8 1.668
Q2 2014 0.2 0.1 1.369 7 2.7 86.8 -7.2 9.3 101.3 3.2 1.5 1.711
Q3 2014 1.2 0.3 1.263 7.5 2.2 87.2 -2.8 1.3 109.7 2.6 0.9 1.622
Q4 2014 1.5 -0.4 1.21 5.6 1 88.2 1.8 -0.8 119.9 2.7 -0.6 1.558
Q1 2015 2.2 -1.2 1.074 5.8 1 88.1 4.4 -0.3 120 1.5 -1.2 1.485
Q2 2015 1.6 2.2 1.115 6.2 2.9 88.5 -0.5 1.7 122.1 2.2 0.8 1.573
Q3 2015 1.2 -0.1 1.116 7 2.6 91.1 1 0 119.8 1.8 1 1.512
Q4 2015 1.6 -0.1 1.086 6.2 2.3 92.2 1 -0.3 120.3 2.4 -0.3 1.475
Q1 2016 -4.4 -0.4 1.002 -1.4 0.1 100.9 -4.1 -2.8 117 -2.6 -0.8 1.439
Q2 2016 -5.4 -1 0.97 -0.8 -1.1 105 -7.5 -3.7 115.5 -4.4 -1.3 1.425
Q3 2016 -4.4 -1.3 0.952 1.5 -1.9 107.2 -9 -4.3 114.9 -4.1 -1.4 1.422
Q4 2016 -3.4 -1.2 0.935 2.9 -2.4 108.7 -9.6 -4.6 114.2 -3.4 -1.3 1.418
Q1 2017 -1.6 -0.9 0.946 5 -2.2 107.1 -8.1 -3.8 114.2 -1.9 -0.9 1.428
Q2 2017 -0.2 -0.5 0.957 6.1 -1.9 105.3 -6 -3.1 114.2 -0.4 -0.4 1.438
Q3 2017 0.9 -0.1 0.968 6.4 -1.4 103.5 -4.1 -2.5 114.3 0.8 0 1.446
Q4 2017 1.6 0.2 0.979 6.5 -1 101.9 -2.4 -2.1 114.3 1.7 0.3 1.453
Q1 2018 2.1 0.4 0.989 6.5 -0.5 100.5 -1 -1.7 113.8 2.3 0.6 1.456
Q2 2018 2.3 0.6 0.999 6.6 -0.1 99.2 0.1 -1.4 113.4 2.7 0.8 1.457
Q3 2018 2.4 0.7 1.009 6.7 0.3 98.1 0.9 -1.1 113.1 3 1 1.459
Q4 2018 2.4 0.9 1.018 6.8 0.8 97.3 1.4 -0.7 112.7 3.1 1.1 1.461
Q1 2019 2.3 1 1.028 7 1.2 96.5 1.7 -0.2 112.1 3.1 1.3 1.466

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