FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios For 2016 Stress Testing
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today released the economic scenarios that will be used by certain financial institutions with total consolidated assets of more than $10 billion for stress tests required under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010.
The baseline, adverse, and severely adverse scenarios include key variables that reflect economic activity, including unemployment, exchange rates, prices, income, interest rates, and other salient aspects of the economy and financial markets.
The baseline scenario represents expectations of private sector economic forecasters. The adverse and severely adverse scenarios are not forecasts, rather, they are hypothetical scenarios designed to assess the strength and resilience of financial institutions and their ability to continue to meet the credit needs of households and businesses under stressed economic conditions.
The FDIC coordinated with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in developing and distributing these scenarios.
FDIC Releases Economic Scenarios For 2016 Stress Testing
| Date | Euro area real GDP growth | Euro area inflation | Euro area bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/euro) | Developing Asia real GDP growth | Developing Asia inflation | Developing Asia bilateral dollar exchange rate (F/USD, index) | Japan real GDP growth | Japan inflation | Japan bilateral dollar exchange rate (yen/USD) | U.K. real GDP growth | U.K. inflation | U.K. bilateral dollar exchange rate (USD/pound) |
| Q1 2001 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.879 | 5 | 1.7 | 106 | 2.6 | -1.2 | 125.5 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.419 |
| Q2 2001 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 0.847 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 106.1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 124.7 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.408 |
| Q3 2001 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.91 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 106.4 | -4.4 | -1.1 | 119.2 | 2.6 | 1 | 1.469 |
| Q4 2001 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.89 | 8.4 | 0.2 | 106.9 | -0.5 | -1.4 | 131 | 1.4 | 0 | 1.454 |
| Q1 2002 | 0.9 | 3 | 0.872 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 107.3 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 132.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.425 |
| Q2 2002 | 2 | 2 | 0.986 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 104.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.525 |
| Q3 2002 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.988 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 105.5 | 2.6 | -0.7 | 121.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.57 |
| Q4 2002 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 1.049 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 104.5 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 118.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 1.61 |
| Q1 2003 | -0.9 | 3.3 | 1.09 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 105.5 | -2.2 | -1.6 | 118.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.579 |
| Q2 2003 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1.15 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 104 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 119.9 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.653 |
| Q3 2003 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.165 | 14.2 | 0 | 102.6 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 111.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.662 |
| Q4 2003 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.26 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 103.4 | 4.2 | -0.6 | 107.1 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.784 |
| Q1 2004 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.229 | 5.5 | 4 | 101.4 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 104.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.84 |
| Q2 2004 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.218 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 102.8 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 109.4 | 2.2 | 1 | 1.813 |
| Q3 2004 | 1.3 | 2 | 1.242 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 102.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 110.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.809 |
| Q4 2004 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.354 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 98.9 | -1 | 1.7 | 102.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.916 |
| Q1 2005 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.297 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 98.6 | 0.8 | -2.7 | 107.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.889 |
| Q2 2005 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.21 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 98.9 | 5.4 | -1.2 | 110.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.793 |
| Q3 2005 | 3 | 3.2 | 1.206 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 98.6 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 113.3 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.77 |
| Q4 2005 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.184 | 11.6 | 1.7 | 98.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 117.9 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 1.719 |
| Q1 2006 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.214 | 10.9 | 2.4 | 96.8 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 117.5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.739 |
| Q2 2006 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.278 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 96.7 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 114.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 1.849 |
| Q3 2006 | 2.6 | 2 | 1.269 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 96.4 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 118 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 1.872 |
| Q4 2006 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.32 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 94.6 | 5.2 | -0.4 | 119 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.959 |
| Q1 2007 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.337 | 13.7 | 3.6 | 94 | 4 | -0.2 | 117.6 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.969 |
| Q2 2007 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.352 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 91.9 | 0.6 | 0 | 123.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 2.006 |
| Q3 2007 | 2 | 2.1 | 1.422 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 90.6 | -1.5 | 0.1 | 115 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 2.039 |
| Q4 2007 | 2 | 4.9 | 1.46 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 89.4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 111.7 | 3.1 | 4 | 1.984 |
| Q1 2008 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 1.581 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 88 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 99.9 | 1 | 3.7 | 1.986 |
| Q2 2008 | -1.3 | 3.2 | 1.575 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 88.7 | -4.6 | 1.6 | 106.2 | -2.2 | 5.7 | 1.991 |
| Q3 2008 | -2.2 | 3.2 | 1.408 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 91.6 | -4.1 | 3.6 | 105.9 | -6.6 | 5.8 | 1.78 |
| Q4 2008 | -7.1 | -1.4 | 1.392 | 0.1 | -0.9 | 92.3 | -12.5 | -2.2 | 90.8 | -8.7 | 0.5 | 1.462 |
| Q1 2009 | -11.3 | -1.1 | 1.326 | 3.8 | -1.4 | 94.2 | -15.1 | -3.6 | 99.2 | -6.1 | -0.1 | 1.43 |
| Q2 2009 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.402 | 15.4 | 2.3 | 92.3 | 7.1 | -1.7 | 96.4 | -0.8 | 2.2 | 1.645 |
| Q3 2009 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.463 | 12.6 | 3.9 | 91.3 | 0.4 | -1.2 | 89.5 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| Q4 2009 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.433 | 9 | 5.2 | 90.7 | 7.1 | -1.6 | 93.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 1.617 |
| Q1 2010 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.353 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 89.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 93.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2010 | 3.9 | 2 | 1.229 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 91.1 | 4.6 | -1.2 | 88.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.495 |
| Q3 2010 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.36 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 88.4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 83.5 | 2 | 2.3 | 1.573 |
| Q4 2010 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.327 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 87.4 | -2 | 1.3 | 81.7 | 0.4 | 4 | 1.539 |
| Q1 2011 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.418 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 86.5 | -7.7 | -0.4 | 82.8 | 3 | 6.7 | 1.605 |
| Q2 2011 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.452 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 85.3 | -2.2 | -0.4 | 80.6 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 1.607 |
| Q3 2011 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 1.345 | 5.9 | 5 | 87.4 | 11.2 | 0.3 | 77 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.562 |
| Q4 2011 | -1.2 | 3.5 | 1.297 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 87.4 | 0.9 | -0.7 | 77 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 1.554 |
| Q1 2012 | -0.7 | 2.7 | 1.333 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 86.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 82.4 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 1.599 |
| Q2 2012 | -1.3 | 2.3 | 1.267 | 5.9 | 4 | 88.1 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 79.8 | -0.7 | 2 | 1.569 |
| Q3 2012 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 1.286 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 86.3 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 77.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.613 |
| Q4 2012 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 1.319 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 86 | -0.4 | 0 | 86.6 | -0.2 | 4 | 1.626 |
| Q1 2013 | -1 | 1.1 | 1.282 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 86.3 | 4 | 0.4 | 94.2 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.519 |
| Q2 2013 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.301 | 7 | 3.1 | 87.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 99.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.521 |
| Q3 2013 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.354 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 86.8 | 2 | 2.4 | 98.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.618 |
| Q4 2013 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.378 | 6.5 | 4 | 85.9 | -0.7 | 2.3 | 105.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.657 |
| Q1 2014 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.378 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 86.9 | 5 | 0.7 | 103 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.668 |
| Q2 2014 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.369 | 7 | 2.7 | 86.8 | -7.2 | 9.3 | 101.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.711 |
| Q3 2014 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.263 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 87.2 | -2.8 | 1.3 | 109.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.622 |
| Q4 2014 | 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.21 | 5.6 | 1 | 88.2 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 119.9 | 2.7 | -0.6 | 1.558 |
| Q1 2015 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 1.074 | 5.8 | 1 | 88.1 | 4.4 | -0.3 | 120 | 1.5 | -1.2 | 1.485 |
| Q2 2015 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.115 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 88.5 | -0.5 | 1.7 | 122.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.573 |
| Q3 2015 | 1.2 | -0.1 | 1.116 | 7 | 2.6 | 91.1 | 1 | 0 | 119.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 1.512 |
| Q4 2015 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 1.086 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 92.2 | 1 | -0.3 | 120.3 | 2.4 | -0.3 | 1.475 |
| Q1 2016 | -4.4 | -0.4 | 1.002 | -1.4 | 0.1 | 100.9 | -4.1 | -2.8 | 117 | -2.6 | -0.8 | 1.439 |
| Q2 2016 | -5.4 | -1 | 0.97 | -0.8 | -1.1 | 105 | -7.5 | -3.7 | 115.5 | -4.4 | -1.3 | 1.425 |
| Q3 2016 | -4.4 | -1.3 | 0.952 | 1.5 | -1.9 | 107.2 | -9 | -4.3 | 114.9 | -4.1 | -1.4 | 1.422 |
| Q4 2016 | -3.4 | -1.2 | 0.935 | 2.9 | -2.4 | 108.7 | -9.6 | -4.6 | 114.2 | -3.4 | -1.3 | 1.418 |
| Q1 2017 | -1.6 | -0.9 | 0.946 | 5 | -2.2 | 107.1 | -8.1 | -3.8 | 114.2 | -1.9 | -0.9 | 1.428 |
| Q2 2017 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.957 | 6.1 | -1.9 | 105.3 | -6 | -3.1 | 114.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 1.438 |
| Q3 2017 | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.968 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 103.5 | -4.1 | -2.5 | 114.3 | 0.8 | 0 | 1.446 |
| Q4 2017 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.979 | 6.5 | -1 | 101.9 | -2.4 | -2.1 | 114.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.453 |
| Q1 2018 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.989 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 100.5 | -1 | -1.7 | 113.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.456 |
| Q2 2018 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.999 | 6.6 | -0.1 | 99.2 | 0.1 | -1.4 | 113.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 1.457 |
| Q3 2018 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.009 | 6.7 | 0.3 | 98.1 | 0.9 | -1.1 | 113.1 | 3 | 1 | 1.459 |
| Q4 2018 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.018 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 97.3 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 112.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.461 |
| Q1 2019 | 2.3 | 1 | 1.028 | 7 | 1.2 | 96.5 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 112.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.466 |
