Michael Bloomberg entering the race is a potential game-changer – and no President would be better for education reform – but I think odds are slim that he actually runs. It would require either Trump or Cruz getting the Rep nomination (~50% chance) and Sanders winning the Dem nomination (~30% chance according to the betting sites, but I think this is too high), so that math works out to, at best, a 15% chance.
But him even considering running pressures Hillary to stop her tack to the left, especially on ed reform, which is great:
Michael Bloomberg has lamented what he considers Mrs. Clinton’s lurch to the left in her contest against Mr. Sanders, especially her criticism of charter schools and other education reforms that he pushed as mayor and has continued to support since leaving office.
Pushing Hillary back toward the center has the added benefit of increasing her chances of winning the general election.
At the end of the day, only one of our parties is batsh*t crazy enough to nominate a totally unelectable extremist like Trump, Cruz or Sanders, so if Hillary doesn’t get panicked by a few bad polls and sticks to the center, the Presidency is hers. (The betting sites have her ~50% likely to be the next President, down from 62% a few weeks ago; I’d put the odds at 65%.)
Via Whitney Tilson
Michael Bloomberg, Sensing an Opening, Revisits a Potential White House Run
By ALEXANDER BURNS and MAGGIE HABERMAN
JAN. 23, 2016
Michael R. Bloomberg at City Hall in New York in 2013 on the day before his last day as mayor. The state of play in this year’s presidential election has prompted Mr. Bloomberg to consider a third-party run for the White House. Credit Damon Winter/The New York Times
Michael R. Bloomberg has instructed advisers to draw up plans for a potential independent campaign in this year’s presidential race. His advisers and associates said he was galled byDonald J. Trump’s dominance of the Republican field, and troubled by Hillary Clinton’s stumbles and the rise of Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on the Democratic side.
Mr. Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York City, has in the past contemplated running for the White House on a third-party ticket, but always concluded he could not win. A confluence of unlikely events in the 2016 election, however, has given new impetus to his presidential aspirations.
Mr. Bloomberg, 73, has already taken concrete steps toward a possible campaign, and has indicated to friends and allies that he would be willing to spend at least $1 billion of his fortune on it, according to people briefed on his deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss his plans. He has set a deadline for making a final decision in early March, the latest point at which advisers believe Mr. Bloomberg could enter the race and still qualify to appear as an independent candidate on the ballot in all 50 states.