Cyclical Earnings Estimates Keep Falling, Health Care Estimates Actually Rising
Earnings estimates and sales estimates continue to decline over the past month, especially in cyclical sectors. In the table below, we show the average 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month change in sales and earnings estimates. Readers can select an individual country or select “All” to see data for the entire developed world.
Energy stocks have seen FY1 EPS estimates fall by nearly 10% over the past month. Over the past six months, energy FY1 EPS estimates have fallen by 26%. Sales estimates are on the decline as well but not nearly to the same extent. Most sectors have seen a slight decline in sales estimates over the past month. Nine out of ten sectors have seen sales estimates decline over the past three months as well. Health care has bucked that trend and sales and EPS estimates have actually increased over the past three months.
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Looking at just the United States, estimates haven’t been falling quite to the degree as they have in the overall developed world. Only telecom, materials and energy have seen EPS estimates fall by more than 1% in the past month. Over the past three months, financials and health care stocks have seen slight increases in both EPS and sales estimates. Lastly, over the past six months, energy and materials have definitely been hit the hardest. Energy estimates have fallen by 26% and materials estimates have fallen by nearly 13%.
Cyclical Earnings Estimates Keep Falling, Health Care Estimates Actually Rising by Eric Bush, CFA – Gavekal Capital Blog