Microsoft has already launched Windows 10-powered Lumia 950 and Lumia 950 XL. And Windows 10 Mobile will be pushed out to existing phones later this month. The software giant was hoping that its new OS with Universal apps would help it gain market share. However, research firm IDC doesn’t expect Windows 10 Mobile to increase Microsoft’s share of smartphone OS market.

Windows 10 Will Not Boost Microsoft's Smartphone OS Market Share: IDC

IDC paint a gloomy picture of Windows 10 Mobile

According to IDC’s latest report, only 31.3 million units of devices running Windows Phone will be shipped by the end of calendar year 2015, giving it a meager 2.2% market share. The unit shipments indicate a decline of 10.2% over the previous year. By comparison, the shipment of Android device is expected to jump 9.5% to 1.16 billion units, giving it 81.2% market share.

Windows 10 Market Share

Sales of smartphones running Apple’s iOS will jump 17.3% to 226 million units this year. It means Apple will have 15.8% market share at the end of 2015. The IDC report paints a gloomy picture of Windows Phone that will soon be succeeded by Windows 10 Mobile. The research firm says Microsoft’s shipments will rise from 31.3 million in 2015 to 43.6 million smartphones in 2019. But the Redmond-based company will have only 2.3% share in 2019 as overall shipments will rise to 1.4 billion units.

Windows Phone’s ASP is lower than Android

Windows Phone’s 10.2% decline in 2015 comes despite Microsoft keeping the average selling price (ASP) of its phones lower than their Android rivals. According to IDC, the Windows Phone ASP is $148 compared to $219 for Android devices. IDC says Microsoft’s weak results are due to the lack of OEM partner support, and Windows 10 Mobile isn’t going to help much.

When Microsoft acquired Nokia’s mobile business, IDC predicted that Windows Phone’s market share would skyrocket from 3.9% in 2013 to above 10% by 2017. The new report says its share will remain close to 2.2% through 2019. Remember, most analysts had written off Microsoft’s Surface tablets until the Surface Pro 3 came along. So, it’s too early to say whether Windows 10 Mobile will boost Microsoft’s market share.