To Do List – Preparing For 2016 by TheLongShortTrader
The purpose of this post is to serve as a large self-reminder (for reasons I don’t quite fully understand, putting things in writing increases the likelihood that I will commit to doing them!). It was largely inspired by my friend. If it helps you, great.
Reviewing 2015
- Review all 2015 trades (open, closed, realized, unrealized, etc)
- If + gains (realized or unrealized):
- Why/causation – “right”, luck, or dumbluck
- What was/were the basis/bases of my decision-making?
- What could I have done differently? What was out of my control?
- If – losses (realized or unrealized):
- Why/causation – “right”, luck, or dumbluck
- What was/were the basis/bases of my decision-making?
- What could I have done differently? What was out of my control?
- Are there patterns that imply behavioral and/or intellectual/analytical tendencies that can be improved upon?
- Review errors of omission, i.e. trades/ideas I did not follow through (and the inverse, i.e. bullets dodged)
- Optional: Do the above (quickly) for all trades since 2011.
Comments: I already know (I think) the answers to the above questions with respect to my biggest 2015 losses/gains.
To Do List – Considerations for 2016
- Was I simply lucky in 2015, i.e. the macro/market/etc conditions were precisely favorable for me (and those like me) who behave and think certain ways in certain market environments? I may just be a “fool of randomness”
- in 1970s, Steinhardt was the “genius” and Buffett the “fool”… and visa versa in other environments.
- Who is looking like the “genius” this year? Who looks like the fool?
- Are they actually geniuses and/or fools? Is the supposed genius actually a fool of randomness? Is the supposed fool the proverbial Job?
- If I were merely a “fool of randomness” in 2015, what can I do differently in 2016 so that I may either (a) not be a fool of randomness (b) make money even if I am the fool (or mitigate risk of becoming the ultimate “Thanksgiving Turkey”, the proverbial ‘patsy on the table’)?
- Make list and/ aggregate existing lists of specific themes, sectors, securities, etc. that are of highest interest for 2016
- Have I positioned already? if so do I have too much or too little allocation? If not, why not?
- Look left when everyone else is looking right. Visa versa.
