Tesla Motors May Beat Q4 Production And Shipment Guidance

Tesla Motors May Beat Q4 Production And Shipment Guidance
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Tesla is expected to reveal its fourth quarter shipments on Jan. 4. Global Equities’ Trip Chowdhry expects the firm to deliver over 18,300 units in the quarter. The number from Chowdhry is at the higher end of the guidance of between 17,000 and 19,000 units.

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Tesla to meet delivery and production guidance

In the last 45 days, delivery truck activity at the company’s factory has been “extremely strong” and was observed at almost three times the activity observed in the third quarter, says Chowdhry. But in the first two week of the quarter, delivery truck activity had been “extremely slow.”

“We think that the improved activity within the last 45 days of this quarter, more than offsets the weakness during the first 2 weeks of the quarter,” the analyst noted.

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Chowdhry reported that over 98% of customers picked the auto-pilot feature, which comes at an extra cost of $2,500. Also dark blue was the most popular color among customers. The analyst observed that the ASPs were more or less constant, and D models, which cost $5,000 extra, were more popular than S models.

Tesla is expected to have produced 16,500 to 17,000 units, while the production guidance from the EV firm is between 15,000 and 17,000 units. It is very unlikely that the company will provide a breakdown of deliveries, but if the number of deliveries is close to the high end of the range, one could assume that the company has been able to ramp up Model X production.

Bullish but limited upside

Vetr analysts are optimistic about the EV firm’s prospects heading into 2016 even though its stock is down by almost 10% over the past six months. The firm’s analysts have upgraded their star rating of the stock to 3.5 stars (out of 5 stars). Since the last rating of 3 stars was issued about two weeks ago, the stock has risen to $228.95.

Apart from the upgrade, Tesla is also a popular stock with more than 10% of Vetr users in their watch list holding the stock. Also over 73% are bullish on the EV firm, but their price target of $238.58 implies very limited upside.

On Tuesday, Tesla shares closed up 3.6% at $237.19. Year to date, the stock is up by almost 7%, while in the last one month, it is up by over 2%.

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Aman is MBA (Finance) with an experience on both Marketing and Finance side. He has worked as a Risk Analyst for AIR Worldwide, and is currently leading VeRa FinServ, a Financial Research firm. Favorite pastimes include watching science fiction movies, reviewing tech gadgets, playing PC games and cricket. - Email him at amanjain@wordpress-785388-2679526.cloudwaysapps.com
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