Market Implied Inflation Expectations Approaching 2015 Lows by Eric Bush, CFA, Gavekal Capital Blog
The market isn’t foreseeing an inflationary burst going into the new year. TIPS implied breakeven inflation is near 2015 lows across 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year time frames. 5-year breakeven inflation currently sits at 124 basis points, 10-year breakeven inflation is at 150 basis points and 30-year breakeven inflation is at just 170 basis points. Breakeven inflation lows for the year were made in late September and saw a bit of a bounce in the weeks following the low in the stock market. However, 10-year breakeven inflation is now just 9 basis points higher than the September low and 30-year breakeven inflation is just 8 basis points higher.