How ISIS Is Tearing Europe Apart by John Mauldin
There are no good solutions—or at least no attractive ones—for dealing with ISIS. That means they and their terrorist cohorts will continue operating freely. Hollande can talk about massive reprisals, but I doubt reprisals will solve France’s homegrown terrorist problem.
We should recognize that the “terrorists” in the recent Paris attacks were mostly French or Belgian citizens, raised in Muslim ghettos (let’s call them what they are) where youth unemployment is 40% or more.
There are going to be more terrorist attacks in Europe and each will make more European voters increasingly uncomfortable. Restless voters will listen to politicians who promise to control borders and keep people safe.
Anti-EU Parties Are Gaining Momentum
Europe was already in economic and political distress before the Paris attacks. Throw in a few more terrorist acts and the refugee issue (which will be massively expensive), and we could see the centrist parties lose political control. Anti-EU political parties have a real chance to take control of major countries in Europe. Marine Le Pen is riding high in the French polls.
I have no particular love for any of Europe’s centrist parties. They may well deserve to lose power. Then again, look how well that turned out for Greece. Portugal’s center-right doesn’t appear to be doing so well, either.
But if Marine Le Pen is the answer, France is asking the wrong question. I wonder what kind of working partner she would be with Angela Merkel—assuming that Merkel can stay in power.
Terrorism and Refugees Build Up Serious Political Tension
Please understand that I am actually pro-immigration, for economic reasons, unlike many of my political friends. Europe actually needs immigration—but citizens don’t like the kind of immigration they are getting.
The Eurozone can manage its massive problems only with considerable political coordination. However, there has been precious little coordination in the EU lately. With the new refugee and terrorist crises, positive outcomes are now significantly more difficult, if not impossible.
I don’t see how the situation in Europe ends well. That’s sad because Europe—the Europe I know and love—deserves better.
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