Google recently reorganized itself under the name Alphabet, and Wall Street is looking forward to the next earnings report when the new structure will make its first full appearance. Analysts have praised the company for the greater transparency that’s expected to come with the restructuring, and several firms have already upped their price targets.
Now Evercore ISI analysts have raised their target from $840 to an ultra-bullish target of $915 per share. Here’s a breakdown of their sum-of-the-parts valuation:
Opportunities in YouTube
Ken Sena and his team said in their Dec. 2 report that YouTube’s valuation is currently at $85 billion, which places a significant discount on how much is users are worth at only $66 each, compared to Facebook’s $186 per user and Netflix’s $779 per user.
They also see plenty of opportunity for Google’s new parent company to expand the average revenue per YouTube user, which is currently at $7. That puts it in line with Twitter, under Facebook’s $11 per user, and far below peers in major media.
The Evercore ISI team also said that of the $4.4 billion in net revenue they estimate out of YouTube this year, adjusted EBITDA should be at $1.2 billion. However, when including D&A and SBE, they think it is actually closer to breakeven than initially thought.
They’re expecting YouTube to enjoy a 25% compound annual growth rate over the next five years, bringing it to $33 billion by 201. They think YouTube’s EBITDA margins are in the low-teens as a percentage of gross revenues but also that margins can double from where they are right now.
Google’s Display network valued at $20 billion
The Evercore ISI team places a valuation of $20 billion on Google’s Display Network business, which they estimate has revenues of about $6.5 billion. They apply a multiple of seven times their 2016 net revenue estimate for the segment at $2.5 billion, which they say is about double the value of pure-play ad tech companies but half of Facebook’s gross profit multiple. When factoring in the value per impression, they see further support for their valuation.
They set a valuation of $4.4 billion to Google’s “Other Bets” segment, including $2.2 billion for Nest, $1.8 billion for the two investment arms, and $305 million for Google Fiber. They did not set a value for any of the other “bets,” including the Google X experimental arm or Calico.
Google a top pick
Sena said Google is still one of their top picks because they think it’s one of the only large cap firms that “can boast an attractive margin profile, sustained high-teens top-line growth, and an EV/FCF multiple also in the teens.” When combining these fundamentals with the company’s innovation and improved efforts to connect marketers with consumers across multiple verticals and also the decision to improve transparency through the formation of Alphabet, they see the case for their massive valuation of $915 per share.
Shares of Alphabet dropped by as much as 1.26% to $$768.05 per share during regular trading hours today.
All graphs in this article are courtesy Evercore ISI.