2016: Ten Surprises for Japan

0

It is the time of year when economists and strategists present their forecasts and baseline scenarios for the year ahead, 2016. Quantitative forecasts are based on de facto probability models, and qualitative scenarios are based on, well, a combination of experience and common sense. Either way, most methodologies leave little room for a discussion of true outliers and surprises.

This list of “2016: 10 Surprises for Japan” is trying to address this deficiency. Here are the “out of consensus” scenarios that I personally worry about as possible inflection points for Japanese investment strategy. By definition, they carry probabilities that may be one or two standard deviations away from the market’s baseline assumptions; however improbable today, any movement toward their far-out targets may well trigger major inflections in Japanese markets. Their primary purpose is to stimulate the reader to “watch out for the unthinkable.”

Enjoy & best wishes for a healthy, happy and prosperous 2016.

Avoiding the Losers with XOUT Capital’s David Barse

WinValueWalk's Raul Panganiban David Barse, Founder and CEO of XOUT Capital, and discuss his unique approach to investing. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The following is a computer generated transcript and may contain some errors. Interview with XOUT Capital's David Barse


Read Jesper Koll’s 2016 – Ten Surprises for Japan.

Previous article Asset Flows And Hedge Fund Crowding
Next article Netflix Talks Of Middle East Launch And Content It Will Offer
About WisdomTree WisdomTree launched its first ETFs in June of 2006, and is currently the industry's fifth largest ETF provider. WisdomTree sponsors 69 distinct ETFs that span asset classes and countries around the world. Categories include: U.S. and International Equity, Currency, Fixed Income and Alternatives. WisdomTree pioneered the concept of fundamentally weighted ETFs and active ETFs and is currently an industry leader in both categories. WisdomTree is the only publicly traded asset manager exclusively focused on the ETF industry. WisdomTree is listed on the NASDAQ Global Market under the ticker: WETF.

No posts to display