Tilson: Long Spirit Airlines, Short Wayfair [SLIDES]

Tilson: Long Spirit Airlines, Short Wayfair [SLIDES]

Whitney Tilson’s slides on his favorite long and short ideas from Robin Hood

Whitney Tilson: An Update on the Two Short Ideas I Pitched at the Robin Hood Conference Two Years Ago

Lumber Liquidators Has Collapsed

  • Amidst a formaldehyde scandal exposed by 60 Minutes, the stock has fallen 88% from $115.36 to $13.87
  • Sales and SSS are down double digits and the company is now reporting losses – trends that I don’t expect will reverse anytime soon
  • I believe the business is likely permanently impaired, so it remains a significant short position in my funds

An Hour With Ben Graham

This interview took place on March 6 1976. At the time, a struggling insurer, Government Employees Insurance Company (GEICO) was making headlines as it teetered on the brink of bankruptcy. Ben Graham understood the opportunity GEICO offered, and that’s where the interview began. Ben Graham and his partners had, at one time, been significant shareholders Read More

Interoil Has Been More Than Cut in Half

  • IOC has fallen 58% from $86.50 to $36.44
  • My belief was (and is) that this is nothing more than a run-of-the-mill (albeit clever) natural resources promotion (natural gas in Papua New Guinea, of all places)
  • After more than a decade, Interoil still hasn’t produced a single MCF of natural gas – and I don’t think it ever will
  • I got fatigued and covered the short – but my view on the company/stock hasn’t changed a bit

Whitney Tilson

Whitney Tilson: An Update on the Long and Short Ideas I Pitched at the Robin Hood Conference Last Year

Exact Sciences, My Primary Short Idea, Has Fallen 61%

  • The stock has fallen 61% from $24.22 to $9.39
  • The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued recently is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard
  • I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
  • My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more last month ~$10

Whitney Tilson

Even Though the Stock Had Been Cut in Half, I Pitched Lumber Liquidators Again

  • I presented this slide:

Whitney Tilson

Lumber Liquidators Subsequently Collapsed an Additional 76%

  • Though it had already been cut in half (from $115.36 to $57.63) since my first presentation, it was still a fantastic short, as it’s since fallen another 76% (from $57.63 to $13.87)
  • A good lesson on not falling into the “I missed it” trap – you hadn’t missed it
  • What the definition of a stock down 90%?
  • Answer: A stock down 80%…that then gets cut in half!

Whitney Tilson 5

See full slides below.

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