Whitney Tilson’s slides on his favorite long and short ideas from Robin Hood
Whitney Tilson: An Update on the Two Short Ideas I Pitched at the Robin Hood Conference Two Years Ago
Lumber Liquidators Has Collapsed
- Amidst a formaldehyde scandal exposed by 60 Minutes, the stock has fallen 88% from $115.36 to $13.87
- Sales and SSS are down double digits and the company is now reporting losses – trends that I don’t expect will reverse anytime soon
- I believe the business is likely permanently impaired, so it remains a significant short position in my funds
Interoil Has Been More Than Cut in Half
- IOC has fallen 58% from $86.50 to $36.44
- My belief was (and is) that this is nothing more than a run-of-the-mill (albeit clever) natural resources promotion (natural gas in Papua New Guinea, of all places)
- After more than a decade, Interoil still hasn’t produced a single MCF of natural gas – and I don’t think it ever will
- I got fatigued and covered the short – but my view on the company/stock hasn’t changed a bit
Whitney Tilson: An Update on the Long and Short Ideas I Pitched at the Robin Hood Conference Last Year
Exact Sciences, My Primary Short Idea, Has Fallen 61%
- The stock has fallen 61% from $24.22 to $9.39
- The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force’s Colorectal Cancer Screening Draft Recommendation issued recently is devastating for Exact Sciences’ only product, Cologuard
- I think this is the beginning of the end for the company.
- My price target for the stock a year from now is $3, so I shorted more last month ~$10
Even Though the Stock Had Been Cut in Half, I Pitched Lumber Liquidators Again
- I presented this slide:
Lumber Liquidators Subsequently Collapsed an Additional 76%
- Though it had already been cut in half (from $115.36 to $57.63) since my first presentation, it was still a fantastic short, as it’s since fallen another 76% (from $57.63 to $13.87)
- A good lesson on not falling into the “I missed it” trap – you hadn’t missed it
- What the definition of a stock down 90%?
- Answer: A stock down 80%…that then gets cut in half!
See full slides below.