Power Politics At Play In South China Sea: Part 2

In his book Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific, Robert D. Kaplan gave a scathing analysis of the volatile region which he predicted will dominate the future of geopolitical conflict. Indeed, Asia’s “cauldron” is set to boil once again. For months, it remained to be seen which country would switch to high on the stove, but now, both the U.S. and China have upped the ante.

READ PART 1: HERE

Today, the South China Sea is a flashpoint for future regional power struggles with serious international ramifications. China’s patient, yet unrelenting military buildup and appetite for renewed global naval hegemony and diminishing American budgets have played equal roles in adding more ferocity to the raging conflict that is the South China Sea.

The grieving claimants

Moving on from the American side of the story, it is important to study and analyze the grievances of other claimants of the South China Sea. Chinese construction projects on several reefs and islets have understandably irked the country’s Southeast Asian neighbors. For months, Chinese crews have been dredging and piling up sand for artificial islands, expanding reefs and islets, and building runways, small housing societies, piers, and other such facilities on several landmasses. In recent weeks, Vietnam has criticized and complained about the new lighthouses installed by the Chinese. The Philippines, on the other hand, is much braver due to Washington’s backing and has taken its claims to international courts. Manila has requested U.S. assistance to protect its supply lines in the area against possible Chinese harassment.

Moreover, the waters are getting murkier after a tribunal in the Hague rejected Beijing’s assertion that territorial disputes in the South China Sea with the Philippines concerned China’s territorial sovereignty. The Hague’s rejection has now cleared the way for the court to hear seven submissions which Manila has made under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Taiwan first occupied an island in the Spratlys after the end of World War II and was soon followed by the likes of Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. All these states have built outposts and airstrips over the disputed territory. China was a relatively latecomer to the party in terms of its adventures in the aforementioned archipelago, which Beijing prefers to call the Nansha islands.

And although the Philippines, the closest country to the Spratlys, has troops stationed in the area, it would never have been able to be so vocal about Chinese expansion had it not had received strong backing from the United States. Vietnam, on the other hand, is in conflict with China’s aspirations for the Paracel islands, and only last year, the two states almost came to blows with one another after China installed exploratory oil rigs in the region.

Malaysian claims, however, are unique compared to those of its fellow claimants. Currently, the Malaysian military is sitting on three islands it considers to be within its continental shelf. Moreover, Malaysian claims are completely based on the continental shelf principle.

A hidden giant observing the South China Sea?

One thing which has not been discussed a lot in light of recent events in the South China Sea is the possible role of Russia in the grand scheme of things. Clearly agitated by U.S. naval maneuvers in what it perceives as a threat to its territorial integrity, it will not be a shocking event if at some point in the future, Beijing takes the help of Russia to protect its territory.

The Anti-Access/Area Denial doctrine has really made it hard for the West to counter the expansionist ambitions of the likes of Russia and China. Both states now boast A2/AD weapons, which means that they have already created conditions in which the likes of the U.S., Japan and other allied forces are likely to suffer heavy losses in the event of a conflict over the disputed waters.

And although he has not been very vocal about his view on the whole South China Sea debate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Russian President Vladmir Putin test American nerves in the South China Sea and size up his adversary in a different territory. In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has developed a keenness towards improving its anti-submarine warfare technology, which has always been one of the greatest weaknesses for Beijing.

While nothing has been reported about a possible submarine deal between Russia and China, Moscow will probably not be against the idea of helping Beijing in this regard.

Ukraine may be miles away from the raging seas in the Pacific Rim, but events in Ukraine, especially if the country retaliates in response to Russian advances that resulted in the annexation of Crimea, could see Moscow look at the South China Sea as a possible pathway to strike back. In order to achieve his foreign policy agenda on a broader perspective, Putin is unlikely to have any qualms in providing China with the right A2/AD infrastructure to further its expansion in the disputed territory, which would not bode well for the U.S. and its allies.

Despite its obvious shortcomings and the fact that it is already busy on multiple fronts, possible Russian involvement aimed at strengthening Chinese presence in the South China Sea will make matters complicated for the United States and the remaining claimants.

Russia’s choice: China or Vietnam?

Russia’s global ambitions are definitely going to take it to the South China Sea; there is no doubt about that. It is inevitable that we will see Russia and China conducting a joint naval exercise in the region in the near future, and although this will force Moscow into choosing between China and Vietnam, it is clear that the Kremlin will not be torn for choice.

2015 has been a year that has witnessed an unprecedented surge in relations between the two countries. In May 2014, when Vietnam protested to China about the oil rig crisis, a lot of people in Hanoi were left disappointed about Moscow’s lack of a substantial statement. China, on the other hand, had the same reactions when the global community was left exasperated following Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

However, considering the fact that Moscow still provides military and naval assistance to Vietnam, it means that somewhere down the road, the Kremlin could be forced to either choose between Hanoi or Beijing or do what could surprise the rest of the world by turning itself into a significant contributor to Southeast Asian stability and put a lid on a cauldron that is already simmering to a point of no return.

Stranger things have happened!

Asia's Cauldron - The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific

Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific by Robert D. Kaplan

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24 Comments on "Power Politics At Play In South China Sea: Part 2"

  1. You said it is better to have a convoluted brain. so you must have it.

  2. so what is your problem with convoluted brain? I think you had, because you are the first to mentioned that, yes you are possessed that brain, you know why? that’s the result of so much eating fetus, you drunk of fetus, you don’t know what is your talking about, the effect of so much eating fetus are, convoluted brain, short memory, be come a mongoloid, thieves and being chinese wahahahaha

  3. You know yourself to have a convoluted brain becasue you said it is better to have a convoluted brain.

  4. ask to your self not to me, I know myself..

  5. So you have a convoluted brain.

  6. that’s from you, not my idea..

  7. after 5000 years you still a live? but you don’t have any single document to show to the world that you are the owner of SCS, don’t tell that since ancient time the SCS is ancient territory of chinese mongoloid, FYI, the SCS is a south china sea is an ocean a deep sea water and there’s no territory, only fish can claim the undersea water that there’s territory, for short during ancient time chinese was a fishes?…

  8. smell fishy, chinese living in undersea, chinese though, since ancient time, there ancestral territory is in within submerge of spratly’s, means during ancient time chinese was a fish, wahahaha smell fishy..

  9. who’s phillip? and who’s Borneo?

  10. you are like akino clown

  11. phillip is in EEZ of China but Borneo is in EEZ of phillip is that your stupid idea or ……

  12. chinese said undersea is there territory since ancient time, smell fishy…

  13. It’s better to had convoluted brain then nothing brain..

  14. If what you said doesn’t come from USA, what you said must be ridiculus, typical of a convoluted brain.

  15. Can we please stop talking about China’s 9-dash line claims. The PCA in the Hague will decide this. The question is what will China do, after the PCA rules in favor of the Philippines, which most lawyers and scholars agree will happen sometime next year.
    The US as the guarantors of international law will surely help the Philippines recover its rightful territory and will start escorting their ships, protecting their new oil rigs and prevent the PRC from harassing their fishermen in their lawful EEZ.
    This will clearly make a farce of the PRCs island building projects which will not be allowed to be militarized (something Xi says he will not do, but will rationalize nevertheless).
    Then the real action will occur…

  16. that’s my word not came from the USA, are you human? I think not because you are chinese!

  17. You must has a convoluted brain. USA dare not say or has said that China belongs to the Philippines.

  18. rather china belong to The Philippines

  19. You mean US doesn’t say that the land of Philippine belong to the Philippines.

  20. stupid chinese trolls, YES US granted Philippines independence but US can’t divide the sea telling like this, this is for you, this for me and this for china, and you Filipino I can’t grant you to travel outside your shoreline, don’t move stay where you are, is that your point @ting_m_1999?

  21. For 5000 years China has been promoting trade, peace and FREEDOM in China’s South China Sea, now Carter coming from 200 years rogue history is destroying all that. That is the difference between Good and Evil.

  22. The author gives no evidence to quote that China is after global naval hegemony. That means he is a rumor monger. When the colonist USA granted Philippine independence, USA didn’t include any features in South China Sea as the territories of Phiippine. When the French-Vietnam war ended, no feautres in the South China Sea were included as the territories of Vietnam. These mean that the islands that both Vietnam and Philippine claimed were invaded and occupied by them from China. China announced the Dash LInes right after WWII and received no renunciation from WWII victors including USA. That means the islands, rocks, reefs, atolls and shoals within the Lines belong to China and China has the sovereign right to do whatever is appropriate on them. The inability of the Hague court to stop WWI, WWII and recent Mddle East conflicts and other conflicts initiated by the West indicates that it is a tool of the West for the interest of the West.

  23. Taiwan, at end of world II, in 1947 when it occupied Taiping Island in SCS, was China and was called Republick of China. Even now it’s official name is still the “Republic of China” based on Taiwan’s constitution It’s capital was in Nanjing, China in 1947. Later, after the revolution and the civil war, China assumed all the rights and ontained the seat including the veto power of Taiwan / Republic of China in the United Nations. Particularly all the world major countries including US, Russia, Britain, France, Japan, Philippine, Vietnam, etc. all agreed that that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China.
    The author of this article need study more in order to avoid ignorance and mistake.

  24. Well, Russia already knows what the future will hold for a possible Russia-China alliance by looking as China-US relation.

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