Whitney Tilson in an email to investors, shares China’s consumer data, courtesy of Jim Chanos.
Jim Chanos shares the data gathered by his staff, which should put to the lie the idea that the Chinese consumer is increasing purchases (“Look at the movie box office!”), despite the slowing economy. The source is official Chinese Government data.
The answer as to why everybody is talking about Box Office sales is because it is the only positive item. I pulled down whatever sales data I could find and transformed it into a quarterly series, so we can do a YoY comparison. I did the same analysis for production figures. All the data is pasted below.
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Jim Chanos: China’s Box Office sales
Sales of consumer staples are all ex growth or decelerating:
- Beer: -10.7% YoY in Q2
- Soft Drinks : +1.1% YoY in Q2 vs +22.1% in PY
- Cigarettes: -0.2% YoY in Q2
- Bicycle: -7.1% YoY in Q2
- Motorcycle: -6.3% YoY in Q2
- Sedans: -9.0% YoY in Q2
- TV Sets: -6.8% YoY in Q2
I have also provided data on the production of consumer goods. I have attempted to group this data set based off what I perceived to be similar value items. The only datasets showing strength are:
- Microwaves: +10.4% YoY in Q3 vs 14.4% in PY
- Monitors: +8.9% YoY in Q3 vs 18.4% in PY
- Corrugated Box: +17.0% YoY in Q3 vs +19.2% in PY
Production of Select Electronic Consumer Products
Production of Select Transportation Consumer Products
Production of Select Residential Consumer Products
Production of Select Staple Consumer Products
Sales of Select Consumer Products