Some political observers are optimistic that North Korea will return to the Six-Party talks negotiating table and eventually reached an agreement to dismantle its nuclear program. Their optimism hinges on the world powers’ recent nuclear deal with Iran.
Is North Korea ready to give up its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and normalizing relations with other nations including South Korea and the United States—its primary adversaries.
Creating Strategic Value With Joseph Calandro Jr.
Kyle Mizokami wrote an article in The Week indicating that nuclear deal with North Korea will serve as a poison pill that would end the Kim dynasty in the impoverished country.
Mizokami noted the comments of optimistic political observers that the incentives that go along with a nuclear deal would be too great for Pyongyang to resist. North Korea is a poor country with an economy a third of the size of Ethiopia’s economy.
Optimists are wrong about North Korea on a potential nuclear deal
Mizokami emphasized, “The optimists are optimists are wrong. A nuclear North Korea is something the world is going to have to get used to.” He explained that the main part of the country’s mythology was the Kim Dynasty being the defender of the real Korea against the capitalist gang led by the United States.
The Kim Dynasty used that mythology to build up North Korea’s military, develop nuclear weapons and to demand great sacrifice from its people. The Noth Koreans are enduring harsh living conditions while the authoritarian government is making huge spending on the military.
According to Mizokami, the North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un would be admitting that the United States is no longer a threat if his regime agrees to surrenders its nuclear program. Such admission would undermine the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un’s government.
“What would be the point of further sacrifice? Like revolutionaries, the Kims have started something that can’t end without putting themselves out of a job — or worse. The Kim family and their cronies could very well find themselves — like family friend Nicolai Ceausescu of Romania — up against a firing squad,” emphasized Mizokami.
The author said North Korea is not irrational or even crazy as commonly described by some people. He noted that North Korea “makes different choices and plays by its own rules.”
According to Mizokami, North Korea’s actions are difficult to understand. However, it doesn’t mean that it has no logic behind every action it takes.
He noted that Kim Jong-un’s father, Kim Jong II witnessed how the U.S. military destroyed the Iraqi forces easily in 1991. The Iraqi military had arms and equipment similar to North Korea. The situation proved that numerical strength was increasingly irrelevant in warfare.
Noth Korean Supreme Leader would be foolish to give up nuclear program
North Korea decided to focus its resources on developing the atomic bomb. The Kim Dynasty’s reason for its action—the United States will not invade a country with nuclear weapons. In 2006, Pyongyang successfully tested its first bomb and conducted two more tests since then.
Mizokami pointed out that the atomic bomb is now a key part of the survival strategy of Kim Jong-un’s regime. The bomb serves as a trump card for the North Korean Supreme Leader although his armed forces are becoming weaker and more antiquated every yea
Take note that since 9/11, the United Stated invaded Iraq and Afghanistan. It also attacked its targets in Libya, Syria, Yemen and Somalia. North Korea, a part of the original Axis of Evil was the only country hasn’t been attacked by the United States.
Mizokami wrote, “Although circumstantial, the evidence is compelling that the only reason Pyongyang has escaped punishment is because it has nuclear weapons.” He concluded that Kim JongIl may be right in his decision to develop the atomic bomb. The uncertainty surrounding North Korea’s nuclear program kept the United States at bay and protected the Kim Dynasty to stay in power.
According to him, Kim Jong-un would be foolish to give up the country’s nuclear program.
North Korea already voiced out its strong opposition to a nuclear deal similar to the Iran agreement. A spokesman for the country’s foreign ministry said Pyongyang is “not interested at all” in negotiations that would compel it to freeze or dismantle its nuclear weapons unilaterally.