Are We About To See A Big Time Rally In The Long Bond? by Bryce Coward, CFA, Gavekal Capital Blog
During this cycle the positioning of commercial traders (the smart money) has been a crystal ball for players in the treasury market. Every peak in long bond rates since 2010 has been associated with commercial traders net long options and futures contracts on said instrument. At a net long positioning of about 34,000 contracts, the commercials are the most long the long bond since the end of 2013 before the 30-year treasury bond yield fell from 4% to about 2.2% over the course of 13 months. Given the deflationary tendencies all over the world, we could easily make the case for repeat of the 2014 episode for bonds. We also remind readers, however, that US stocks finished up about 11% in 2014, and that disinflation/price stability can in fact be good for stocks as well as bonds simultaneously.