Capitulation in Gold (Continued….)

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Continuing from where we left off in the capitulation series, a case study, http://csinvesting.org/?p=11351

Gold-COT (1)

Silver-COT (1)

Precious-Metal-Short-Interest

The above charts show the massive swing in sentiment as speculators moved from long to short expecting gold to fall INEVITABLY to $1,000 or so the pundits say:

What's uglier than gold

Demand for gold bullion remains stronger than the supply offered through the futures market–the co-basis is rising:

letter-aug-9-gold

Meanwhile, could divergences be developing in miners vs. gold? Note prior bottoms in 1986 (bear market rally) and 2000, the beginning of a major rally.

bear divergence

HUI_2000_070815

HUI_gold_110815

This post is not a recommendation but compiling the case study of capitulation in gold and associated miners. Remember Why Gold Mining is a Tough Business_Pollitt (a MUST read!) and Why-is-gold-mining-such-a-crappy-business Summary and…

ray-dalio (2)

Templeton

http://thefelderreport.com/2015/07/21/its-time-to-get-greedy-in-the-gold-market/  John Chew: Don’t ever just concentrate in one gold stock since the company and operational risks can be high.  SDGJ by Sprott offers diversification and sensible companies. Sprott Junior ETF Mining. Why even consider investing in such a bad industry? Because of price and the counter-cyclical nature of these stocks. You buy when the industry is losing money and hated and sell when the pundits recommend it and the trend is forever extrapolated higher.  There is no law that miners won’t go lower; miners are extremely volatile moving up and down 10% in one day.

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