Windows 10 is going to be launched in just a few weeks, but PC manufacturers are not overly excited about the launch of the new Microsoft OS. According to PC Magazine’s Tim Bajarin, Windows 10 is not likely to be a major driver for new PC sales in the second half of this year.

Windows 10 Microsoft

Bajarin explains his point of view: “For decades, this [a Windows upgrade] has been a huge driver for PC makers. At first, consumers tend to move somewhat quickly to upgrade and in many cases they buy new PCs as part of the upgrade process. IT buying is slower, but after 2-3 years, many IT shops jump on the new OS bandwagon.However, it appears that this tried-and-true formula will not replicate itself with Windows 10. One reason is Microsoft’s botched Windows 8 release, in which Redmond pushed a drastic new user interface. Business buyers avoided it like the plague, and consumers only upgraded when they were forced to buy a new PC.”

Manufacturers are not positive about growth in PC sales from Windows 10

After the Windows 8 debacle, Microsoft has wisely decided to include the Start button in Windows 10, and also made it easy to toggle back to Windows 7. Bajarin says he thinks this new OS should help PC sales, but most PC makers are doubtful. Most estimates that 2015 PC sales are 3-4% under 2014 sales, which were already around 8% down from 2013.

Bajarin notes :”No OEMs I have talked to expect much of a bump in PC sales because of Windows 10.”

One reason is that individuals and businesses are not upgrading PCs as often as they did in the past. Until a few years ago, consumers typically upgraded their machines every 2-3 years and businesses did so every 3-4 years, but both are holding on to machines several years longer today.

Another important reason is that the PC used to be the only way people could connect to the Internet, email and more. That’s all changed today, as a variety of mobile gadgets such as smartphones, tablets and even smart TVs can accomplish the same tasks.

The PC is simply less important for many and is now mainly for personal productivity or educational purposes. That means there is no sense of urgency to upgrade because of a new OS, and most consumers will only buy a new machine as a part of a natural upgrade process due to an aging or failing PC.