Notes From 1934 Quick Look At Moody’s Manual – Part I by Redfield, Blonsky & Co.

February 2009

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1. Industrial production dropped big. Commercial air units dropped from 2,684 units in 1930, to 1057 in 1933. I noted that engines didn’t really drop. I don’t know if that is relevant or not.

2. Pounds of mail cargo dropped, in both cost and units from 1929 – 1931.

3. Auto production in 1929 was 4.8M cars, 1,186 in 1932 and 1,661 in 1933. Similar for trucks.

4. Total Building contracts in dollars were $5.8M in 1929 and $1.26M in 1933. Building costs dropped by 15% between 1929 and 1933.

5. Lumber production

Moody's

6. Cement was similar to lumber above.

7. Petroleum production did not crash, but dropped.

8. Railroad Equipment Orders

Moody's

9. Crude Oil Prices – “remarkable growth in Auto…”

Moody's

10. Retail Sales Seasonaly adjusted. These peaked in 1929.

Retail Sales

11. Rubber production worldwide stayed at peak levels , +/- 15%

12. Steel and scrap prices dropped as expected.

13. Industrial production plummeted.

14. Tobacco production dropped (not sure of how much)

15. Moody's Average Yields on 40 bonds

Moody's

Moody's

16. Corporate Financing Dried up:

Corporate Financing

17. Stock yields were typically greater than bond yields by 150bps

Stock yields