In his latest presentation to investors Crispin Odey has turned even more negative on the equity and bond markets, a theme initially expressed in an earlier letter. The one time bull has turned into a bear proclaiming that “this down cycle is likely to be remembered in a hundred years, when we hope it won’t be rated for ‘How good it looks for its age!’”. ValueWalk obtained a copy of a recent presentation from Crispin Odey, readers can find the slides below.
Odey Asset Management’s review for the first quarter ended March 31, 2015.
During Q1-15 OEI returned +1.4% (€), OEI Mac returned +4.7% ($), Odey Swan returned 0% (€ I); the long-only funds returned: (Opus £) +6.2%, (Odey Allegra International €) +12.8% and (Odey Pan European € R) +9.9%. The MSCI Daily TR Net Europe returned +16.5% (€), +3.5% ($) and the MSCI Daily TR Net World returned +7.4% (£) and +15.3% (€).
The performance of OEI for Q1-15 was mainly driven by active currency exposure (+10.1%), this was predominantly due to the AUD/USD position.
Odey Asset Management portfolio holdings
The long equity book disappointed after currency hedging returned -5.0%. Positive contributions from positions such as Sky Plc (+98bps), DMG Mori Seiki Co. Ltd (+80bps) and Man Group Plc (+69bps). There were a number of negative contributions, the largest of which came from Circle Holdings Plc (-20bps), Tungsten Corp Plc (-19bps) and Sports Direct International Plc (-16bps).
The short equity book also made a negative contribution after currency hedging (-4.7%). The best performers were Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (+40bps), Seadrill Ltd (+29bps) and BG Group Plc (+13bps). The worst performers were Adidas AG (-137bps), Peugeot SA (-64bps) and Tupperware Brands Corporation (-56bps).
Elsewhere government bond and commodity positions returned +2.0% and -0.6% respectively.
See full slides below.