Why We Worry Top-Down, Invest Bottom-Up by Frank Martin from the Ben Graham Centre conference
“We are reminded again of the warning from the distant past from our mentor, Ben Graham, which I have quoted before: ‘Only 1 in 100 survived the 1929-1932 debacle if one was not bearish in 1925.’ We continue to be early –and bearish!” – Prem Watsa, Fairfax 2013 Letter to Shareholders
“Anyone who attempts to direct the employment of capital will not only bring much unwanted attention upon himself but also will unwittingly or otherwise assume authority that should be trusted to no political entity, however mighty, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had the folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.” – Adam Smith
Reported vs 10-year Moving Average S&P Earnings
See full PDF below.