Apple investors always look for a new device from the company to earn them a fortune. However, this time, investors might be disappointed by the Apple Watch, says a report from USA Today by Matt Krantz.
Apple much bigger now
For a long time, buying shares of the iPhone maker around the time of new product announcements has been a lethal strategy for investors. Those who acquired the shares around October 2001 when the original iPod was announced have gained 9,200% since then, while investors putting their money in at the time of the first iPhone in January 2007 have gained around 930%, says Krantz.
David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital returned -2.9% in the second quarter of 2021 compared to 8.5% for the S&P 500. According to a copy of the fund's letter, which ValueWalk has reviewed, longs contributed 5.2% in the quarter while short positions detracted 4.6%. Q2 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Macro positions detracted 3.3% from Read More
However, expecting the same strategy to work with the Apple Watch, may prove to be a “bit of a time bomb for investors,” according to Krantz. Apple is a different company now, and this has “repercussions for investors trying to cash in on it,” says Krantz, who backs his conclusion with a number of reasons.
Apple has become so big now that even impressive initial sales of the watch won’t matter much. Even if Apple ships 17.6 million watches this year at an average selling price of about $350 (as expected by Deutsche Bank analyst Sherri Scribner), the total comes to $6.1 billion in revenue for this year. For almost any other company, the figures would mean something exceptional, but not for the world’s most valuable company. For Apple, it’s just 3% of total revenue in earned in 2014.
Apple Watch is no iPhone
Another reason cited by Krantz is that Apple is mostly a phone company despite the fact that it has launched products like the iPod, Apple TV and iPad. Almost 60% of the company’s revenue and profit comes from sales of the iPhone.
High expectations for the Apple Watch are another reason given by Krantz for being less optimistic on the upcoming gadget. As per Krantz, Apple’s current stock price already includes the impact of the upcoming gadget. According to Scribner, Apple’s average forward P/E ratio since 2010 is around 13, but presently, the company is trading higher. Scribner has a price target of $110 on Apple, which is well below the current share price of around $126.
However, in the end, Krantz does say, “Not going along with the Apple crowd, though, has been costly,” and presently, shares have been in uptrend, gaining 70% over the past year. But the writer does conclude by saying, “Investors love the iPhone. But the Apple Watch is no iPhone.”