Temp Staffing Index Signals Significant Employment Gains Coming by Todd, Sullivan, ValuePlays
The temp staffing index hit an all time high just before Christmas as we expected it would given its strength heading to the holiday hiring season. While that alone would signal increasing gains down the road, what it has done since then bodes well for even more.
Here is the chart:
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While the consistent upward slope of the index in 2014 was impressive and predicted the gains in NFP we saw later in 2014, it is what the index has done the last few weeks that has me increasingly optimistic about at least the first half of 2015.
Typically the index peaks just before Christmas and then collapses 20% or more immediately following before recovering thru January. This year the index fell a mere 13% post the all time high levels. That is an indication that hiring and retention not only remain strong but are increasing. Here are the drop visually:
When you piggyback this data with what we are seeing with rail traffic one has to be unconditionally habitually bearish to not see the good news underlying the economy……