Temp Staffing Index Points To Big Employment Gains

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Temp Staffing Index Points To Big Employment Gains

Temp Staffing Index Signals Significant Employment Gains Coming by Todd, Sullivan, ValuePlays

The temp staffing index hit an all time high just before Christmas as we expected it would given its strength heading to the holiday hiring season. While that alone would signal increasing gains down the road, what it has done since then bodes well for even more.

Here is the chart:

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While the consistent upward slope of the index in 2014 was impressive and predicted the gains in NFP we saw later in 2014, it is what the index has done the last few weeks that has me increasingly optimistic about at least the first half of 2015.

Typically the index peaks just before Christmas and then collapses 20% or more immediately following before recovering thru January. This year the index fell a mere 13% post the all time high levels. That is an indication that hiring and retention not only remain strong but are increasing. Here are the drop visually:

Temp Staffing Index

When you piggyback this data with what we are seeing with rail traffic one has to be unconditionally habitually bearish to not see the good news underlying the economy……

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.

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