Herbalife’s great sell-off continues today, with the stock plunging as much as 10%, marking the second consecutive day of declines. As of this writing, already more than 4 million Herbalife shares had changed hands, compared to the average daily volume of about 1.7 million shares.
Herbalife talk on Twitter
The Twitter-verse was alive with talk about Herbalife’s share price slump today, with some calling up reminders of the epic battle between two activist investors. Bill Ackman kicked off the controversy about the company with his $1 billion short bet in 2012 when he called it a pyramid scheme, and Carl Icahn went on record opposing him and defending the company.
$HLF 2) Carl Icahn likely to start stirring the pot at these valuations, 3) US is ~18% of biz, its not the whole taco even if FTC goes wild
— Fundamental Investor (@fundiescapital) January 6, 2015
$HLF holy liquidation … where is the MOASS ???? @Carl_C_Icahn thought you had some fire power Ackman 1 Icahn 0
— Nathan Michaud (@InvestorsLive) January 6, 2015
Ackman wins, Icahn loses
Although Ackman lost big-time on his Herbalife short the first couple of years, he’s now up by nearly $200 million, according to the New York Post‘s Michelle Celarier. She reported on Monday that options trading was especially large as well, and her sources reportedly told her that it appeared as if sellers were attempting to cut their losses in Herbalife.
Celarier pointed out as well that Herbalife insiders can’t sell shares right now because we’re in the week’s leading up to the company’s earnings report. This means that Icahn can’t be one of the investors who’s unloading Herbalife stock like it’s going out of style. And with this week’s share price decline, Icahn’s lost about $68 million on the 17 million shares he owns.
So who’s selling Herbalife and why?
Another investor who’s probably pretty upset with Herbalife’s sliding share price is Post Holdings Chairman and CEO Bill Stiritz, who is the company’s biggest shareholder. Julia La Roche of Business Insider estimates that he’s lost approximately $218.8 million on his Herbalife stake so far.
Seeking Alpha contributor Matt Stewart suggested that Stiritz is the one who’s dumping Herbalife shares. He notes that Stiritz, along with Icahn, Capital Research Global Investors and Fidelity Management & Research Company, own more than half of Herbalife. He calls these four shareholders “the 4 Horsemen of the Herbalife Apocalypse.”
He also makes some suggestions as to why someone is unloading shares. He said it’s possible Herbalife might be preparing to pre-announce bad fourth quarter earnings results or that regulators are preparing to move on the company, perhaps making some sort of announcement about the findings of their investigation. He also suggested Herbalife might be having some liquidity problems and be forced to issue millions of additional shares, thus diluting current investors’ stakes.
Stewart (assuming this is the same Matt Stewart who posted on Seeking Alpha, and it appears to be) stirred the pot on Twitter as well, posting numerous ominous tweets about Herbalife. He also revealed that he has added to his short position in the nutritional supplements company.
TWEET THIS TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW. Massive Dilution facing $HLF stockholders.
— Matt Stewart (@torontostewart) January 6, 2015
@Carl_C_Icahn The only thing you have left to offer Bill Ackman is the time value of money. Punt your $HLF and you might see $10 per share
— Matt Stewart (@torontostewart) January 6, 2015
Institutions haven’t even begun to sell $HLF yet. lots of downside room here.
— Matt Stewart (@torontostewart) January 6, 2015
$HLF debt ratio spikes as equity value collapses. Refinancing risk is now the story. Ackman in the driver’s seat.
— Matt Stewart (@torontostewart) January 6, 2015
In breaking news which may have leaked and caused the crash Lawrence Delevingne and Kate Kelly of CNBC report that Paul Sohn, The chief architect of Soros Fund Management’s bullish bet on Herbalife has quietly departed.
