David Tepper, a billionaire investor and manager of Appaloosa Management estimated that the S&P 500 could still rise 8% to 10% next year from its current level. According to him, the index is “fairly valued right now.
During a telephone interview with CNBC, Tepper said, “I think we’ll have a good year [referring to 2015.” He explained that a fair value is a range and not a specific number. He noted that the S&P 500 has price-earnings ratio of 16. According to Tepper, stocks could trade to the higher band of the range at around 18.
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Tepper also noted that the easing of the central bank will play a role in the upward movement of stocks. “You have people responding to deflation all over the place. First thing that goes up when people try to fight deflation is asset prices,” said Tepper.
Appaloosa Management had a tough year in 2014. Tepper said his firm underperformed that S&P 500, but it was “up on the year.” He added that the hedge fund gained in December. The year 2014 was also challenging for other hedge funds.
Tepper is currently 70% to 80% long on equities
Last April, during the SALT conference in Las Vegas, Tepper warned investors; “Don’t be frickin long.” When asked about his current position in equities compared last April, Tepper said he is 70% to 80% long.
“It’s not the time to be careful now. Enjoy the ride. However, Tepper also cautioned investors and to be aware of overvaluation. “Don’t get too comfortable when the ride starts. The ride hasn’t started yet,” he said.
Tepper recently warned that 2015 is poised to be like 1999
Last week, Tepper warned that 2015 is poised to be like 1999, which was referred to as the dot-com bubble.“This year rhymes with 1998. Russia goes bad. Easing [is] coming from Europe. Sets up 1999 … [oops] I mean 2015,” wrote Tepper in an e-mail to CNBC’s Matthew J. Belvedere and Evelyn Cheng. According to him, there would be some sort of overvaluation in the markets.
CNBC noted that the recent financial crisis confronting Russia is similar to the country’s situation in 1998. Back then, the Russian government and central bank defaulted its debt and devalued the ruble.
Russia was severely impacted by several factors including the Asian financial crisis, the decline for the demand of crude oil and nonferrous metals during that time.