The iPhone 6 may be just about the only thing you hear about in the news today, as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is set to unveil it in a matter of hours. As the company battles Android device makers for market share, the big question has become: will the iPhone 6 be great enough to talk Android users into switching? So far, it doesn’t seem like it.
Android users unlikely to switch
A survey conducted by Survata found that about 12.4% of the participants said they were “somewhat likely” to switch to the iPhone. However, they hadn’t made their decision yet. And when it comes to having an even greater intention to switch, the percentage is much smaller—just 5%.
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So Wall Street will be looking for signs that the iPhone 6 is so great that it could help Apple grab market share. And consumers will be looking to see if it’s so great that they want to switch. One thing that could cause some Android holdouts to switch is a larger screen, but that won’t be enough to convince others.
How likely are iPhone users to upgrade?
There have been a handful of surveys conducted on current iPhone users to measure about how many of them may upgrade to the iPhone 6 soon. Survata’s survey found that 18% of iPhone 5S users are planning to upgrade, while 15% of iPhone 5C are planning to upgrade. And 35% of iPhone 5 users are apparently looking to upgrade as well.
Another survey conducted by comScore indicated that 35% of current U.S. iPhone users said they are likely to upgrade to the iPhone 6 within the next six months. The survey indicated that current iPhone 4 users were the most likely to upgrade this year.
Analysts conduct iPhone 6 surveys
Analysts from multiple firms have conducted their own surveys of iPhone owners to gauge upgrade interest. In July, Canaccord Genuity analysts said they believe that pent-up demand was created by longer replacement cycles and expectations for a larger screen. They also think there is a significant installed base of iPhone 4 and 4S users who are just dying to upgrade to the iPhone 6.
More recently, Stifel analysts also said they’re expecting a record launch weekend for the iPhone 6. They predict that Apple will sell 10 million to 13 million iPhone units over launch weekend, compared to last year’s 9 million iPhones.