After ten months of constant decline, BlackBerry Ltd’s (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) 200-day moving average stabilized in July and then started to move up at the end of last month, giving technical traders reason to think that the stock has real upside potential. With all the buzz around the new BlackBerry Passport slated to debut on September 24, this could be the opportunity the company has been looking for to prove its skeptics wrong.
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BlackBerry has pushed against $11.60 twice in the last year and fallen back
“A breakout on increased volume across US$10.40 starts the ball rolling for the stock to test important resistance at US$11.60,” writes National Bank Financial analyst Dennis Mark. “An upside breakout at US$11.60 will be an important breakthrough that turns the trend up and suggests much higher potential.”
BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) stock hit $11.60 a year ago when Prem Watsa announced that he would wanted to take the company private, and then again two months ago following a big earnings beat and growing excitement about the new Passport model smartphone. If the stock, now at $10.60, crosses $11.60 then it would mean the market is really reconsidering the company’s chances. Mark also points out that both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages have turned positive, so there seems to be a good chance that ceiling could budge.
Passport release, iCloud hack give BlackBerry a big opportunity
Moving away from technicals, BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) has two big ways to capitalize on its recent price momentum, and it’s trying to take full advantage of both. First, the September 24 rollout of the Passport in Dubai, London, and Toronto gives BlackBerry a chance to make a big splash with a new phone. Timing the release to go up against the iPhone 6, also highly anticipated, shows how confident CEO John Chen must be that the Passport will connect with users. Of course, another underwhelming product launch would only reaffirm bears’ feeling that the brand can’t be salvaged outside the most security-minded users.
But here again BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) has a big opportunity. The high profile iCloud hack and leak if celebrities’ private photos has showcased how important security has become when so much of our personal data is in the cloud. BlackBerry has been promoting tweets that take aim at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) security or praise its own. If it takes that campaign a step further and gets BlackBerrys in the hands of newly security conscious celebrities it could even be the break it needs to regain the cool factor that iPhones have had for years.