Cheaper Smartphones, Faster DRAM Chips [ANALYSIS] by Veibha Subramaniam, Capital Cube
The DRAM Market: Executive Summary
- Smartphone upgrades from feature phones in emerging markets is the next leg of growth for the smartphone industry
- Cheaper smartphone makers like Xiaomi and Micromax are replacing Samsung as the leading brand in both China and India in 1Q2014
- MediaTek’s earning’s growth was twice that of Qualcomm in 2013 indicating better revenue for MediaTek given the larger market expansion for cheaper smartphones
- This market expansion defines the market for mobile DRAM market
- Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix control almost 90% of the DRAM market. DRAM prices are expected to be stable. These 3 companies will increase earnings in this space having already announced mass manufacture of new generation DRAM chips (DDR4)
- Nanya technologies will also benefit from this wave given its holding in Inotera memories. Inotera announced that it will manufacture DDR4 chips by this year end
- A combination of new technology DRAM chips (DDR4) and increase in cheaper smartphone penetration will increase the marketsize of the DRAM chips
Xiaomi, Micromax, Karbonn phones – the cheaper smartphones made in China and India are now the real threat to Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (LON:BC94) (KRX:0059935) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) smartphones. In July 2014, Micromax ousted Samsung as the leading brand in all types of smartphones in the second quarter by grabbing 16.6% of the market share. Samsung had 14.4% of the marketshare, down from 16.3%.
(Source: Counterpoint research, Canalys)
In the same quarter, Xiaomi usurped the top spot from Samsung in China. Xiaomi became No. 1 in China by shipping 15 million devices in the second quarter, giving it a 14% share of the market. Samsung shipped 13.2 million smartphones giving it a 12% market share.
The next leg of growth in the smartphone industry will come from the emerging countries. In 2013, The Indian smartphone market grew by close to 55%, but that represents just 10% penetration. According to Mary Meeker’s Internet trends report 2014, Meeker expects the Indian smartphone growth rate to decline but the size to increase by 45%. This is mainly because of people upgrading their phones from feature phones to smartphones.
According to TrendForce, in 1Q2014, Samsung managed to claim first place with a worldwide market share of over 30%, due to its low to mid range smartphone shipments.
A recent Economist study indicated a huge growth in the under-$200 price range smartphone. This is the category that smartphone makers like Xiaomi and Micromax operate in.
Qualcomm (QCOM) vs MediaTek (2454)
Micromax is able to produce a low cost smarphone using low cost SoC (system on chip) manufactured by MediaTek Inc. (TPE:2454) and low cost DRAM chips.
Xiaomi on the other hand uses QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM)’s Snapdragon microprocessor for its phones. It makes money by selling apps and providing cloud based services through its phone.
MediaTek trades at 22X earnings whereas Qualcomm trades at 18X earnings. This is mainly a reflection of the free cash flow that MediaTek generates compared to Qualcomm.
Comparing profitability between MediaTek and Qualcomm, it can be seen that Net Margin for Qualcomm is around 27% whereas that for MediaTek is around 21%.
The surge in cheaper smartphones has resulted in a higher earning and revenue growth percentage for MediaTek vs Qualcomm. Media Tek’s earnings growth was twice that of Qualcomm’s in 2013.
MediaTek’s operating cash flow growth has had a meteoric rise indicating the explosion of cheaper smartphones in China and India.
Mobile DRAM market
A DRAM enables electronic devices to access any part of the system memory directly and instantly, rather than by accessing the data in a sequential manner. DRAMs used in mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, portable gaming devices, and PDAs are referred to as mobile DRAMs. Currently, the increasing adoption of mobile devices worldwide is fostering the demand for DRAMs.
DDR3 is the DRAM which is currently in wide use in smartphones. Given the increase in mobile devices like smartphones and tablets, DRAM manufacturers have decreased the production of PC DRAMS and have shifted to mobile DRAMS.
Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix have already announced commercial production of the DDR4 memory chip using the 20nm process. This DRAM chip will be used in the next generation iPhone and Samsung android phone. The main ramp up in production of the chip by SK Hynix and Samsung is to be ready for demand from Intel’s launch of next-generation high-end desktop and server platforms. These use Intel’s next generation Xeon processor and rely on the new-gen memory technology.
The market size of the DRAM market will increase by 12%YoY to USD 39.5 billion given
- New smartphones from Apple and Samsung are slated to be released later in 2014
- Penetration of cheaper smartphones is increasing in emerging markets where the next level of smartphone upgrades will come from
Players in the DRAM market
After Micron’s acquisition of Elpida in Aug 2013, Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix have become the Big 3 manufacturers of DRAM chips.
Samsung, Micron and SK Hynix control more tha 90% of the DRAM market.
(Source: TrendForce, DRAM exchange, Statista)
Nanya Technology Corporation (2408)
Samsung and SK Hynix from Korea control 75% of the total market share. However, Taiwanese Nanya will also be able to increase its share because of its joint venture with Micron in Inotera memories. Micron amended its agreement in Jan 2013 to buy the entire production of Inotera memories.
(Source: Capital Cube)
Nanya Tech has executed a turnaround in its operations since 2013. This can be seen with an increase of Net Income in 2013 of about 123%. Nanya and Micron hold 29% and 40% of the outstanding shares of Inotera’s memories. Inotera has access to Micron’s technology and expects to commence pilot runs of 20nm-technology at the end of the 2Q2014, on schedule, and launch initial volume production in the end of 2014.
Get CapitalCube’s tear sheet on Nanya Technology
Given Nanya’s investment in Inotera memories and its successful turnround in 2013, the market expects it to do well. This is reflected in the fact that it is trading at around 13X earnings while the major players like SK Hynix and Micron trade at 9X earnings.
Comparing Net Margin across the top 5 companies, it is seen that SK Hynix, Micron and Nanya technologies have a net margin between 15% – 20% and are the leaders in their group. Samsung even with a large share of the DRAM market has a lower net margin because of lower sales of its smartphones. Micron has been able to turnaround in 2013 mainly because of its Elpida acquisition and its market share grab because of the fire in SK Hynix’s facility in China in Oct 2103.
SK Hynix, Nanya and Micron again have similar operating cash flow growth percentages of about 110% – 120%. Samsung again is mainly hit by SG&A expenditure which grew by 19% YoY when Sales grew by only 13% in the same period.
DRAM prices will be stable in the next few months however the market for DRAM chips is on the rise given the high market penetration of cheaper smartphones in emerging markets like China, India and Thailand.
The DRAM chips market will be stable despite a possible decline of ASP of DDR3 chips. The introduction of the new generation mobile devices and servers with DDR4 chips and increase in penetration of cheaper smartphones will increase the marketsize of memeory chips.
ETFs with exposure to DRAM chips
The DRAM chip growth can be captured by investing in ETFs like iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund(ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWY), WisdomTree Korea Hedged Equity Fund (NASDAQ:DXKW), First Trust Exchange Traded AlphaDEX Fund II (NYSEARCA:FTW) and iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWT).
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSE Arca:EWT) has a 55% exposure to Taiwanese technology companies with the top 10 holdings being
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (TPE:2330) (NYSE:TSM) has recently started shipping the first batch of microprocessors for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s new iPhones and iPads. This has been a decision from Apple’s end to diversify its supplier which is Samsung. TSMC has approved an additional NT91 billion for capital expenditure this year. The additional capital is slated to fund the company’s efforts to expand holds in the mobile device and Internet of Things (IoT) markets and expand assets, including clean room facilities, plants and equipment, in addition to meeting routine recurring costs. A portion of the NT$91 billion will be directed toward developing custom logic integrated circuit fabrication technologies for clients.
Nanya Tech is a subsidiary of Nan Ya Plastic which is over 2% of the ETFs holding. Inotera Memories is a joint venture between Nanya Tech and Micron.
First Trust Exchange Traded AlphaDEX Fund II (NYSEARCA:FTW) has over a 31% exposure to electronic technology. It has a double exposure to Inotera Memories and Nanya Technology. However this ETF has no exposure to TMSC.
iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund(ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWY) has a 97% exposure to South Korean companies with the top 10 holdings being
WisdomTree Korea Hedged Equity Fund (NASDAQ:DXKW) has a 10% exposure to electronic technology companies with the top 10 holdings being
The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of CapitalCube.com, AnalytixInsight, Inc., its affiliates, or its employees.