Behavioral Bias Bingo – The Illusion of Control by David Foulke, Alpha Architect
The Illusion of Control
In most elevators, at least in any built or installed since the early nineties, the door-close button doesn’t work. It is there mainly to make you think it works. (It does work if, say, a fireman needs to take control. But you need a key, and a fire, to do that.) Once you know this, it can be illuminating to watch people compulsively press the door-close button. That the door eventually closes reinforces their belief in the button’s power. ”
The “Illusion of Control” is a well-researched behavioral bias that describes the tendency of people to believe that they have control over random circumstances. The elevator’s door-close, or “placebo” button is a classic case.
Clint Carlson's hedge fund, Carlson Capital's Double Black Diamond strategy, gained 1.04% net of fees in the month of September. Following this performance, the fund has returned 9.87% net of fees for the year to the end of the month. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more The Double Black Diamond strategy makes up Read More
Hall of Famer Richie Ashburn was an outfielder in major league baseball with a funny superstition. When Ashburn had a good hitting day, he liked to continue using the same bat to keep the streak going. Fearful of getting a “hot” bat mixed up with his others, he would bring it home and sleep with it under his bed.
Richie, it’s NOT the bat
Psychologists have theorized that the illusion of control may occur because people place more weight on outcomes that are consistent with their desires, and less weight on those that are undesired. As EJ Lance put it, “heads I win, tails it’s chance.”
We tend to seek out coherent narratives that have explanatory power and exaggerate their consistency in the real world. Hence, when Ashburn used the same bat, and got another hit the next day, he likely concluded that it was because he used the same bat that he succeeded. When he failed to get a hit the next day, well that was just bad luck, and time for a new bat.
Game 1: Lottery ticket
You are going to buy a lottery ticket. Which do you prefer?
- Choice 1: A ticket where you get to choose the numbers?
- Choice 2: A ticket with randomly generated numbers?
Full article via Alpha Architect